2038, BBA Draft Chatter

[bcslouck]

The 1000-1500 number is kind of where I was, too. The other question is how do all those leftover players affect development and the playable talent pool overall. If you keep having bigger drafts, closer to 2000 than 1000, do you just build up more and more garbage? Does that factor into development? Maybe that's the reason for ratings creep. More players with the same percentage of 80 grade guys means a more talented big leagues, and the process compounds itself with each over sized draft.

So having smaller drafts for a while and shrinking the active player pool can reverse the process. That really wouldn't be fun. Does the game have a "keep this many active players" algorithm and just auto-retire a portion of these guys and knock out more older players to keep a stable number? Or does the FA pool just balloon forever?

Not sure. There has to be something as we had players retire that could at least hold down a MiLC for someone. They retired after not getting that so Matt un-retired them so the UMEBA could have okay players. Maybe that cause something?

I do know my other league has had the loaded drafts and shit ones. But that was around the start of the league. Since those first 5 drafts, they have been much more balanced each year. So it could just be a weird time for the league.

Another thing I thought of. I know people seemed to not be happy about people questioning if it was time for the next expansion. I think this should be figured out before we expand again. Even if it means pushing it another season or two. It's possible the last expansion caused this and we should figure out why before doing it again.

[RonCo]

The size of our draft class is nothing new. I've been seeing them for years. I think it has very little to do with the number of our feeders being a little high and a lot to do with how OOTP does feeders--which, like most things OOTP in the end, is designed wrong. I'll post some data when I get some time today. Bottom line, though.

I know Matt is working hard to investigate. I am also using hours of time under the hood to better understand stuff.

So, yes. like all other things, if we're worried about this two seasons from now, we'll pull the plug on expansion. We announced it to give everyone two seasons to plan.

[ae37jr]

Here are a couple of funky things that are happening that might have something to do with it.

1. Players get drafted, sign, play a couple of years in the minors, get released, retire, then reenter the draft if they are college age(up to 24). I don't have a link to one off the top of my head, but I know it's been mentioned publicly and happens quite often.

2. Players who don't get drafted go back to school. Sounds normal on the surface, but going through 7 years of college is not normal. Marcos Aybar.

So I think what's happening is that every year the draft class gets larger and larger with a bunch of crappy players looking for a second or 7th chance. Like Ron, I noticed it a few years ago too. I even wrote an article about it. And now with relevant ratings, I believe it's grading all these players against each other. Since there are soooo many crappy players that we don't even notice when drafting, it make the average players look way better as we are scouting on some sort of curve.

[JimBob2232]

2. Players who don't get drafted go back to school. Sounds normal on the surface, but going through 7 years of college is not normal. Marcos Aybar.

Its not???

[ae37jr]

2. Players who don't get drafted go back to school. Sounds normal on the surface, but going through 7 years of college is not normal. Marcos Aybar.

Its not???

I was about to write an article about Aybar using this as inspiration....

[RonCo]

All that is true. But the issue is bigger than that.

[RonCo]

At present, I don't think the ratings bloat is about the class size, though. Like we've said... that's been happening in our league for a long time. There are other culprits to look at...

Still working.

[Ted]

At present, I don't think the ratings bloat is about the class size, though. Like we've said... that's been happening in our league for a long time. There are other culprits to look at...

Still working.

Doesn't the ratings bloat have to be at least a little about the class size? Are you saying we've had 6000+ players drafts for years now? I honestly don't know, but I feel like this one was bigger and I had to scroll more to find players. Like, this is about five times as big as what a reasonable class (assuming around 1200) would be for us. If the feeders are making too many players, won't they also make too many good players? Why would the extra players all be bad? If part of it that guys are going back in the draft too many times, I can see how that would increase the pool without adding extra talent, but that can't be the only explanation.

[RonCo]

Not enough time to reply fully now... but yes, we've have been having 6k class sizes for some time.

[Bumstead]

Oh...we use feeders...enough said...

[recte44]

Remember a few years ago when all the chatter was how our draft classes were too weak? Those were the days.

[Bumstead]

Remember a few years ago when all the chatter was how our draft classes were too weak? Those were the days.

That said, my 20th round pick has more potential than some 2nd round picks I have made previously...some of my emoticons have vanished...<sad face>

[recte44]

they were taking up too much loading time
they're still there but you have to type the code for them

[Bumstead]

they were taking up too much loading time
they're still there but you have to type the code for them

Now I know how the N(0) F(un) L(eague) players felt when they couldn't celebrate TD's....<sarcastic grin>

[Ted]

Remember a few years ago when all the chatter was how our draft classes were too weak? Those were the days.

Why can't we seem to consistently find the middle ground? That's really all I wonder. I didn't really mind those weak drafts, but I respect that some people didn't like them. It just always seems that we always yo-yo back and forth from feast to famine.

[Ted]

Remember a few years ago when all the chatter was how our draft classes were too weak? Those were the days.

The other thing I'd re-iterate is that having a bunch of 80 grade players in a draft doesn't make it deep. Having a bunch of those players make it to the BBA in a meaningful way makes a draft deep. If you're looking at the projected talent of a bunch of 17 year olds as your criteria for whether a draft is strong or weak, you're doing it wrong. I get that this is the way many people evaluate a draft pool, but it's incorrect.

It would be interesting to see an analysis of "deep" drafts versus "weak" drafts to see how they actually perform. Maybe I'll take a crack at it.

[udlb58]

Hot Take: OOTP fails to nerf most of these players and this ends up being an epic class like 2016 (the class that produced thirty-five 20+ WAR players; fifty-seven 10+ WAR players; one hundred thirty-five with over 1 WAR; and 228 players [more than half the players drafted] who produced some sort of positive/negative WAR value in the BBA)

[Ted]

Hot Take: OOTP fails to nerf most of these players and this ends up being an epic class like 2016 (the class that produced thirty-five 20+ WAR players; fifty-seven 10+ WAR players; one hundred thirty-five with over 1 WAR; and 228 players [more than half the players drafted] who produced some sort of positive/negative WAR value in the BBA)

This is what my early research into class projection versus class performance is looking like. So my above comment about people assuming deep projections of kids means deep draft being wrong is probably actually incorrect. The question then is what impact this draft has on future ones (if any) and what the impact of adding entirely too many good players to the league at once is.

[RonCo]

After a couple days work, I think I know what caused the mega glut of prospects. More to come.

There is no question that the dev engine will not kill it all the bloat. It can only do so much. So there will be ratings growth... how much is semi-predictable with some focused work. But the important thing to note is that the sky had shifted, not fallen.

[udlb58]

After a couple days work, I think I know what caused the mega glut of prospects. More to come.

There is no question that the dev engine will not kill it all the bloat. It can only do so much. So there will be ratings growth... how much is semi-predictable with some focused work. But the important thing to note is that the sky had shifted, not fallen.

I'll have to remember that. 'You didn't fall off the roof. You merely shifted from the roof to the ground (quickly).'