2038, Sim #2 Chatter

[usnspecialist]

You are a fiddler and I am a non-fiddler for the most part.

I don't get pissy, I just find it annoying.

[Bumstead]

You are a fiddler and I am a non-fiddler for the most part.

I don't get pissy, I just find it annoying.

Caveat: I don't get pissy with Ron and his data. I give him shit because he takes it well and presents his case in a way that I learn from what he is saying. I may not agree with it, but that does not make me pissy.

I have gotten pissy in certain other types of interactions. Carry on.

[RonCo]

It's all good, Jeff. The great thing about poker is that everyone gets to read the cards their own way.

The cards that are up across the league so far look like this:
- 43 of 43 players who did not play during their DTD have recovered well (100%)
- 35 of 37 players who did play during their DTD have recovered well (95%)
- 2 of 37 players who did play during their DTD have gotten injured again or had a set-back during that time (5%)

[RonCo]

At the high level, this says that when you play a guy with a DTD you're taking a 1 in 20 chance that he gets hurt again. However, the high level is probably misleading. I would guess this chance is tied to the individual player's fragility. Play Harlan Moore while hurt and watch him burn. A highly durable guy (let's call him Cal Ripken) is probably just fine.

[Bumstead]

It's all good, Jeff. The great thing about poker is that everyone gets to read the cards their own way.

The cards that are up across the league so far look like this:
- 43 of 43 players who did not play during their DTD have recovered well (100%)
- 35 of 37 players who did play during their DTD have recovered well (95%)
- 2 of 37 players who did play during their DTD have gotten injured again or had a set-back during that time (5%)

I also play poker...something to keep in mind for your next game.

[RonCo]

Ted - Regarding the issue of "unknown" injury duration (which I view as related to, but different from the DtD code) ...

As we've discussed often, I always agree that the game can communicate with us as GMs better. I agree that it would be more comfortable if OOTP always gave some kind of a date on injury changes (like Huntsville's Morales getting a 6-week set-back in his DtD status). That said, I think the "unknown" duration isn't some kind of affront to OOTP GMs. I read it more like "no timetable" which is used often by teams and by doctors.

Note: to me, "no timetable," when used by real doctors, does not mean the doctor is completely clueless on the injury--just as "unknown" does not mean my doctor is clueless when it comes to medicine.

I take it from your answer to my question, though, that the proper number of occurrences of this for you is "zero" and therefore even one occurrence is just one too many.

I would generally disagree with that. If those don't happen often, I'm fine with them--or at least fine enough, given how I read "unknown." So, looking at the real numbers: at present, among the hundreds of injuries in out BBA universe, we have four total injuries with "unknown" duration.

Here are the four:

• Seth Poapst (A - DM) - sore elbow, DtD 2 weeks, now DtD unknown (Date of injury: 4/4)
• Ramon Negron (AA - ATC) - sore shoulder, DtD 2 weeks, now DtD unknown (4/9)
• Jose Duran (AAA - DM) - strained back, DtD 1 week, now DtD unknown (4/7)
• Voitto Stromberg (BBA - PHX) - strained groin, out 6 weeks, now DtD (3/5)

Take a look at the actual injuries. They are all strains and general soreness. These are the kinds of injuries that doctors have a hard time making projections on in the real world, too. [Aside: This makes me kind of smile, really. OOTP may be a bit stingy with the depth of medical data they provide, but the kinds of injuries that get this behavior are reasonably true to form.] I note that--since we're early in the year--all four of them are near their original estimated date.

Anyway, four such injuries. Out of how many, right?

I mean, if they were happening a huge percentage of the time, I'd be just as upset as you are. But the fact is that they don't happen very often. This is something we disagree on, but the numbers are like this right now: we've had about 150 injuries in the BBA level and one "unknown." I haven't counted them, but let's say we have had another 100 injuries in each A-AAA level and a few more in SA/R. All total, my pure guessy estimate is 500 total injuries across the entire universe (and that's probably low).

So we've got 4 unknowns and 500 injuries.

If those numbers continue, under 1% of injuries (actual number = .8%) become "unknown" duration--and that's with what I think is an under-counting of actual injuries. If you think .8% of injuries eventually progressing to "unknown" duration for a time is too many, then you're right. But I admit I struggle to agree with that assessment.

Sure, however, I'd probably like it more if Markus and Matt changed them to new set-backs. But even now we do actually know a lot about these injuries. We know they are strains and general pain. We can expect the strains will be quickish to heal. We can worry about shoulder and elbow soreness being longer. Given that, I'd like it if we got a note from our team doctor saying "Hey, I looked at Ramon Negron this week. He's complaining of soreness in his shoulder, but the MRI came back clean right now, so I can't say much other than from what I see he should be back soon, but that we'll keep monitoring him and update the situation as it moves."

That won't really tell me more than "unknown," but it probably makes me feel better.

This brings me to what is currently the area of my interest in these injuries. specifically: How many of these "unknowns" go away quickly, and how many grow to something really big. We can now follow these four and watch what happens over the next few weeks.

I mean, if half of "unknowns" wind up being a few days, then that's cool. It just means that the original DtD estimate was a few days off. Again, I'd love a note saying "it'll probably be a few more days," but, whatever. If, however, every one of them grows into big, messy, multi-month problems, then I probably do have some additional concerns. But I want to see the data.

Anyway, there's that.

[Bumstead]

Meanwhile, in a strange turn of events, Ted remains silent on the matter....

[RonCo]

I should also note that our injury rate overall this season is about 50% of what it was last year so far. I'll do a feature on it after time moves a little further, but I'd say that Matt's toggling the rate down has made a serious difference.

[ae37jr]

I should also note that our injury rate overall this season is about 50% of what it was last year so far. I'll do a feature on it after time moves a little further, but I'd say that Matt's toggling the rate down has made a serious difference.

I miss the old days when everyone complained that there were too many injuries. Oh wait that is still a thing. I guess until there are zero injuries like 80's Nintendo baseball people aren't going to be happy. So for that reason alone I say crank it back up and let the bodies hit the floor.

[Ted]

Meanwhile, in a strange turn of events, Ted remains silent on the matter....

LOL. I'm going through former night shifter hell right now. I can't stay awake during the day. This comes and goes. But this episode's been about a week. Yesterday, woke up at 6 pm. Went to bed at 5 am (the earliest I could get myself to fall asleep). Woke up today at 6 pm. I hate this shit.

[Ted]

Last comment on this (I hope).

Ron, I think you've collected the data way too early. We are in week two. Give DTD injuries time to convert to unknown. I had four or five unknown duration injuries last year. Every one of the occurred when I didn't place a DTD guy on the DL. A couple guys were benched when their conversion occurred.

I would guess this represents about a quarter of the total DTD injuries I had last year. I think I had 16-20 or so. I don't think the number of unknown should be zero. And the current number may actually be a bit low.

But as you mentioned, I would much prefer to be given a timetable. "Player still being bothered by strained hamstring, will re-evaluate in 2 weeks." That would let me know I won't miss anything by DL-ing the player. Or "Player still being bother by a strained hamstring, but feels close to being able to play." With that, I leave him on the bench and don't promote a new backup. Sure, a small minority can remain "no timetable", but that has always in real life meant that this will almost assuredly be a long term issue. That's my main issue with the label "unknown". It conveys no information, information that would almost every time be available in real life.

You've nailed it with the GM communication part. I've bitched enough now about OOTP and injuries to realized their idea of what is realistic is closer to reality than mine. What I've come to understand is 1) I was spoiled by how easy it was before. 2) More importantly, the communication to GMs by the engine of what is going on isn't advancing with the increased detail within the game. Knowing something is happening without being told what it is (when the information CAN actually be obtained in real life) is very frustrating.

[jiminyhopkins]

Holy crap guys.

Lol I'm glad I have a shit ton of OT at the refinery this week so I don't have time to read all this TL;DR nonsense!

Type all the essays and studies you desire, nothing will stop Talons players from getting hurt whenever they damn well feel like it!

So there!

[RonCo]

Last comment on this (I hope).

Ron, I think you've collected the data way too early. We are in week two. Give DTD injuries time to convert to unknown. I had four or five unknown duration injuries last year. Every one of the occurred when I didn't place a DTD guy on the DL. A couple guys were benched when their conversion occurred.

I would guess this represents about a quarter of the total DTD injuries I had last year. I think I had 16-20 or so. I don't think the number of unknown should be zero. And the current number may actually be a bit low.

But as you mentioned, I would much prefer to be given a timetable. "Player still being bothered by strained hamstring, will re-evaluate in 2 weeks." That would let me know I won't miss anything by DL-ing the player. Or "Player still being bother by a strained hamstring, but feels close to being able to play." With that, I leave him on the bench and don't promote a new backup. Sure, a small minority can remain "no timetable", but that has always in real life meant that this will almost assuredly be a long term issue. That's my main issue with the label "unknown". It conveys no information, information that would almost every time be available in real life.

You've nailed it with the GM communication part. I've bitched enough now about OOTP and injuries to realized their idea of what is realistic is closer to reality than mine. What I've come to understand is 1) I was spoiled by how easy it was before. 2) More importantly, the communication to GMs by the engine of what is going on isn't advancing with the increased detail within the game. Knowing something is happening without being told what it is (when the information CAN actually be obtained in real life) is very frustrating.

Here's a feature request I just logged (you might recognize parts of it):

Unknown Injury Duration Notes?

When an injured player moves to "unknown duration" can the GM get a notice from the doctor that gives some idea of what's going on?

Something like: "Player still being bothered by strained hamstring, will re-evaluate in 2 weeks." That would let me know I won't miss anything by DL-ing the player. Or "Player still being bother by a strained hamstring, but feels close to being able to play." With that, I leave him on the bench and don't promote a new backup.

[Bumstead]

Meanwhile, in a strange turn of events, Ted remains silent on the matter....

LOL. I'm going through former night shifter hell right now. I can't stay awake during the day. This comes and goes. But this episode's been about a week. Yesterday, woke up at 6 pm. Went to bed at 5 am (the earliest I could get myself to fall asleep). Woke up today at 6 pm. I hate this shit.

I worked nights one week for a summer job. I couldn't get enough sleep. I would go to bed as soon as I got home and then get awakened at 6 or 7 pm....I was a walking zombie...Good luck.

[RonCo]

• Seth Poapst (A - DM) - sore elbow, DtD 2 weeks, now DtD unknown (Date of injury: 4/4)
• Ramon Negron (AA - ATC) - sore shoulder, DtD 2 weeks, now DtD unknown (4/9)
• Jose Duran (AAA - DM) - strained back, DtD 1 week, now DtD unknown (4/7)
• Voitto Stromberg (BBA - PHX) - strained groin, out 6 weeks, now DtD (3/5)

4/22 - The three minor league players are still "unknown." Stromberg is ready to play. There were no new "unknown" injuries this week.

[RonCo]

Poabst has recovered and is now fine. Duran and Negron still unkonwn. We've had two more injuries go "unknown"

- Colt Anderson - DM - Dtd 1-2 weeks, now unknown (mild shoulder inflammation)
- Domingo Ayala - NSH (AAA) - Dtd 2 weeks, now unknown (ab strain)

So we've currently had 6 occasions in ST+ 1 month of play. All four active cases have been playing through it.

[RonCo]

Negron and Anderson recovered without issue.

Duran and Ayala are still unknown, but playing.

We added:

• AA LF Anthony Williams with a strained hamstring (was 3 weeks)
• AAA SS Shaw Emmott bicep strain (was 3-4 weeks)

So we have four DtD >> unknown's still active. The rest have all healed whether they played or not.