FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

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Ted
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FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by Ted » Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:53 pm

I"LL NEED THESE BY TUESDAY NIGHT IF YOU WANT CREDIT

*So some of these guys have signed extensions. Arthur Dempster, Jesus Ramos, Elroy Hinson. You no longer have to submit contracts for them to get full credit. If you want to do so, just for discussion purposes, you can. I think it's be interesting to see how good of a home team discount people think Dempster took.

Okay, so there will be a podcast coming up (prior to FA sim 1) where we discuss YOUR predictions on how much guys sign for. But to do that, I need to know what you think. So I made a list. It's 28 players long. To get down to 28, I had to leave off a 20 guys I thought could be interesting. I picked largely players who were good last year, or are big names, or tops at their position, etc.

I'll try to do some work here, and give you the deal they are coming off off, and maybe some other notes about the rest of the class for each when applicable. I'd like, in return, two contracts from you. What you think the player is worth and what you think they will get. For some guys, that will be the same number, for others, it could be wildly different. For simplicity, I'm asking for potential money in these deals. You don't have to tell me if there are options or whatever. Just give me a number of years and dollars. Also, some of these players may not go to free agency. But this has to get done before Thursday next week and I want people to have time. Also, if I left a guy off that you think is important, comment below and I will add him. Lastly, the ages listed are what they will be for 2038.

Just copy and paste the list at the bottom into an email and send it to evilted80@gmail.com. I'll do all the mathing (and maybe foist a bit off on other podcast peeps). I think I already have a 3 person crew to discuss this one. I could squeeze in a fourth if someone is really interesting in this one. As always I will be doing recaps of the offeason pods as well. Let me know if you want in on one of those.

For participation points: You don't have to do every player. Give me 15, you get 2 PP. Give me 21, you get 3. All 28, earn four.

Here's the list (not the one you copy and paste):

Starting Pitchers:
Lots of big names this year. These appear to be the better ones. Lots of old 2 win type guys as well that I left off.

Arthur Dempster
- Probably the reigning king. 3 time Nebraska winner. Coming off his last arb year at 11.75 mil. Aaron is about to start murdering his own players to come up with the cap space to extend him. 29 years old.
Mauro Flores
- Not too long ago, Flores was the most sought after young pitcher in the league. Coming off a 6.6 WAR year and the last year of a 5 year, 54.2 million dollar deal. Just made 14. 2 mil. 31 years old.
Jimmy Greenwood
- The big names just keep on coming. Greenwood just posted a career best 6.7 WAR season. The former first overall pick has been a slight disappointment, settling in as a 4 win pitcher, rather than an all time great. Finishing up a 2 year, 26.6 mil extension where he opted out of over 30 mil to go to FA. Made 13.3 last season. 32 years old.
Jesus Ramos
- Finished a deal of 5 years, 45 mil, made 9.8 mil last year. 2-4 win pitcher throughout his career. Low stamina. 33 years old.
Enrique Gomez
- Didn't vest for the last two years of a huge deal, still made 97 mil. Last year was 15 mil. 2036 Nebraska winner. Has a total of 3. 38 and finally starting to show it.
Cris Rios
- 29 year old 2-3.5 win pitcher. Out of arb, just made 7.1 mil.
Andre Georges
- Another 29 year old out of arb. Peaked at 4.9 WAR, but only 0.8 last year. Just made 8.75 mil
Pepe Castillo
- Was a consistent 3 win guy, struggled in 2037. Coming off a 2 year 8.4 mil deal. 33 years old.

Relief Pitchers:
Another pretty exciting group. As usual, there are also a TON of fungible relievers with upside and warts in addition to these guys.
Luis Ortega
- In the conversation of best reliever in the BBA. 27 and out of arb. Made 8.7 mil in his final year. Last three years he's averaging 3 WAR as a reliever.
Timofei Bakitski
- Signed a 3 year, 21 mil deal to buy out some arb and FA years. Last year made 9 mil. Lost of sub 3 era's. Will be 31.
Hiroyuki Rin
- Coming off a 1 year, 6.47 million deal. Used as a starter at times and accrued 4.8 WAR. Will be 32.
Miguel Macias
- Just made 9.5 million in the second of a two year deal. Former elite arm, still quite good, will be 35.

Catchers:
A few veteran options available.
Elroy Hinson
- One of if not the best of his generation is now 38. Opted out. Been a 2 WAR guy recently.
Hotha Popo
- 27. Out of arb. 1.7 then 2.7 then 3.7 WAR. Will likely want a bit more money. Only made 1.1 mil last year. Tremendous eye.
Sean Smith
- 31 years old. 1.5 to 3.5 WAR catcher. Usually a 2 win guy. More glove than bat.

Infielders:
Besides these guys, there were quite a few lesser vets available.
Gabriel Talamate
- Out of arb. Great glove. Great power. Not so much contact. He's been a 2.5 to 3 win player, but 1.4 in 2036 and benched last year. Just made 11.56 mil and is 30.
Jesus Flores
- 27 and also out of arb and also jsust made 11.56 million. Has posted two 4 WAR seasons, but only 1.5 in 2037. Great glove, okay average and power for a middle IF, doesn't walk.
Brett Compton
- Another out of arb middle IF . Compton surged when moved off SS to 2B. Has the range for SS, but doesn't always perform well there. 2-3 WAR player, has posted 4.4. Just made 8.75.
Gary Schneider
- Marginal defending 2B/3B with an average bat, except for an out of this world eye. Finished up arb. Made 3.6 mil, will be 28
Dong-soo Chon
- One time amazing glove with jsut enough bat to get by. Both bat and D seem to have regressed a bit. Coming off a 1 year deal for 5.3 mil. Will be 28.
Mark Dempsey
- Somehow put up 3.7 WAR and a positive ZR at 3rd in 99 games at 35 years old after years of decline. Opted out of a deal that would have paid him more than 10 mil. Just made ten mil.

Outfielders:
Didn't see as much depth here.
Alfredo Martinez
- Future HOF outfielder. Could make it right now if he retired. Injury prone. Coming off a down year. Opted out of close to 40 mil. Will be 32 and just made 17.7 mil.
Alfredo Salazar
- Another future HOFer. Also opted out of 12 million. Just made 19 mil. Will be 37 and coming off a 2 WAR year.
Michael Durham
- Will be 28. Out of arb and just made 3 mil. All over the place in terms of performance. At times 3+ wins, others barely above replacement level.
Jayden Harsnett
- Opted out of 36 mil guaranteed and possible 78 mil. Coming of 4.4, 3.6 and 2.2 WAR. Will be 31.
Jorge Rodriguez
- opted out of 25 mil over two years. Just made 13.5 mil. Declining glove but still elite OBP skills. Will be 33.

Uber Utility:
Carlos Camacho
- Great glove everywhere and the talent to hit but hasn't. Will be 27. Coming off arb and 970k.
Carlos Garcia
- Can play an good 2B and good anywhere in the OF. Has hit at times. Will be 31. Coming off 5.2 mil x one year.

Starting Pitchers:
Arthur Dempster - extension
Mauro Flores
Jimmy Greenwood
Jesus Ramos - extension
Enrique Gomez
Cris Rios
Andre Georges
Pepe Castillo

Relief Pitchers:
Luis Ortega
Timofei Bakitski
Hiroyuki Rin
Miguel Macias

Catchers:
Elroy Hinson - extension
Hotha Popo
Sean Smith

Infielders:
Gabriel Talamate
Jesus Flores
Brett Compton
Gary Schneider
Dong-soo Chon
Mark Dempsey

Outfielders:
Alfredo Martinez
Alfredo Salazar
Michael Durham
Jayden Harsnett
Jorge Rodriguez

Uber Utility:
Carlos Camacho
Carlos Garcia
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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by usnspecialist » Sun Mar 03, 2019 8:40 am

Bumping this for everyone. To the surprise of probably nobody i am one of the pod guys for this (I am after all stadler to Ted's waldorf, or is it vice versa) and the more info we have the better.
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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by crobillard » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:00 am

I’ll have my list of all 28 in today. I’m super excited about this. I’m sure I’ll be all sorts of wrong, but it’s fun for me.

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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by usnspecialist » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:09 am

I'm pretty sure everyone will be hilariously wrong, and that is what makes it fun.
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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by Ted » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:43 am

usnspecialist wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:09 am
I'm pretty sure everyone will be hilariously wrong, and that is what makes it fun.
This. And sorry guys for such a huge list. I should have pared it down further, but believe it or not, this was 60+ players to begin with. I wanted enough to have some depth and comparisons at positions, and I didn't want to skip talented players. If we do this again, I'll go more for like 18-20. This seems to be a relatively big FA class.
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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by niles08 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:51 am

I'll get this done over the next day or two.
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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by crobillard » Sun Mar 03, 2019 12:59 pm

Ted wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:43 am
usnspecialist wrote:
Sun Mar 03, 2019 11:09 am
I'm pretty sure everyone will be hilariously wrong, and that is what makes it fun.
This. And sorry guys for such a huge list. I should have pared it down further, but believe it or not, this was 60+ players to begin with. I wanted enough to have some depth and comparisons at positions, and I didn't want to skip talented players. If we do this again, I'll go more for like 18-20. This seems to be a relatively big FA class.
I actually really like the long list. Lots of interesting players. Lots of interesting results. More accurate data and more fun. I recognize all the work you did to make this easy to do as well. It’s not much work to loosely predict how much money and years they will get. It just seems overwhelming until you get into it. You already have given us the information we need. I like the way you’ve set this up for us. Thanks.

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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by crobillard » Sun Mar 03, 2019 4:00 pm

Sent

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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by udlb58 » Sun Mar 03, 2019 10:32 pm

Is Savage really a hall of famer? His counting stats are only okay (when compared to the best players in league history) and his 132 OPS+ isn't that impressive either. Sure, some will say that if you add in his EBA stats, that he's a 500/500 player with a near .900 OPS, but he didn't really have BBA starter level ratings until 2023 and the EBA was basically AAA level, so unless we're suddenly counting AAA numbers, I think you can easily throw out those EBA stats. Others still might just say that he missed out on a year or two of BBA stats because he was tied to the EBA, but is that any different than someone who was held in the minors for service time manipulation? The awards and his complete domination of his short peak (2 Silks, 7 Pucketts, 8 ASG) may boost him up though.
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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by Ted » Mon Mar 04, 2019 12:08 pm

I'll need these by Tuesday night if you want to earn any PP.

*So some of these guys have signed extensions. Arthur Dempster, Jesus Ramos, Elroy Hinson. You no longer have to submit contracts for them to get full credit. If you want to do so, just for discussion purposes, you can. I think it's be interesting to see how good of a home team discount people think Dempster took.
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Re: FA Crowd-sourcing Predictions, Earn Participation Points

Post by agrudez » Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:43 pm

With Dempster out of the pool, this crop became underwhelming pretty quickly. :(
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