Interesting Chart of the Day

[RonCo]

This one's for Ted:

[Ted]

My takeaway is that yes, there are too many 1/2 potential changes. Nice to know I'm not way off on a rant for once. Also those development rates look pretty bad. I actually mind that a lot less. Of the two "change ups are difficult" mechanisms, I much prefer the difficulty developing it over the useless pitch rating one.

[RonCo]

There are some problems with the data--not the least of which is selection bias (we're only seeing pitchers in the majors, here). But, yeah, it says that about 25-30% of change ups will be of the 1-2 level. This is actually _better_ than I thought I'd find. I expected 40-50%. It also says that about 65-70% of "useful change ups" develop to their max...which is not great, but again is actually better than I would have predicted before I pulled the data.

I should note, however, that I see similar "development" spreads in curve balls and sliders, so that aspect seems to be fairly consistent across all the usual secondary pitches.

So, for me, this said the rant is in the right direction, but is only maybe half (two-thirds?) as bad as I made it out to be.

[JimBob2232]

Strange. I would have expected a bit more of a bell curve.

[RonCo]

I should also note that if I break it by age bands (again, issues with sample size are big here), I can squint and see that change-ups develop a little later than the others. So part of the development issue _for us_ could be that our pitchers tend to be youngish.

Regardless, this is just one quick snapshot. Nowhere near enough to count for anything definitive.

[usnspecialist]

interesting data, completely agree with the useless changeups being glaringly obvious. Also the 12/12 change is kind of incredible given the well documented issues with that pitch.

[JimBob2232]

Also, some of these are pitchers on the decline, who had better CU ratings.

[RonCo]

Yep. The aging stuff goes both ways. Like I said, I would be reluctant to make any final statements on this chart.

[RonCo]

But in a general way, it does support the view that 1 and 2 change ups do exist at a clear level.

[Fat Nige]

Some of you have way too much time on your hands lol. I enjoy reading all Ron’s little stat packs but most of it goes a bit above my head. This one though I actually understand a bit. Have to try at look at my guys, where they fit in the chart