Something I'd like to see from OOTP

[Ted]

Or maybe there's a way to do this and I don't know. Really that's the reason I'm posting this.

If a pitcher is having an unbelievable game (or some other circumstance), it would be nice to have a setting to adjust or ignore the pitch count. I've a couple guys now come out of 10+k performance 1-3 hitters or lose potential shutouts because they hit the pitch count limit (which I keep around 100). It would be nice to be able to give them another 10-15 pitches.

[cheekimonk]

Or maybe there's a way to do this and I don't know. Really that's the reason I'm posting this.

If a pitcher is having an unbelievable game (or some other circumstance), it would be nice to have a setting to adjust or ignore the pitch count. I've a couple guys now come out of 10+k performance 1-3 hitters or lose potential shutouts because they hit the pitch count limit (which I keep around 100). It would be nice to be able to give them another 10-15 pitches.

There’s your problem. I hope you don’t mean you keep the count around 100 for every pitcher regardless of stamina. I start with what feel is a reasonable max for 10 STA pitcher and work backwards in setting counts based on each pitcher’s STA and injury tendency. I rarely have a pitcher absolutely dominating that also has a soaring count to the point where he gets pulled. But it is a rare game indeed for any pitcher to dominate so much that they finish a CG with less than 100 pitches.

[usnspecialist]

i personally dont even mess with pitch counts and trust my manager (which is likely why i have 9 CG already this season haha).

[Ted]

So, I hate do disagree with both of you, but last I checked, Markus said OOTP used Pitcher Abuse Points, which is a somewhat rickety scoring system that was made to try to predict pitcher injury based on workload. The theory is that pitchers are more likely to get injured when pitching while tired. It also uses tiered cutoffs to make measurements, and the low threshold is 100 pitches in a start. The increase in injury likelihood based on the model (which is somewhat on track) is nonlinear when you go even a little bit over 100 pitches regularly. Whether or not the model is any good, I've seen no reason to believe OOTP isn't using it anymore. So there is no way in hell I'm setting the limit for pitches higher than 100, regardless of the pitcher's stamina. I've also not had a starting pitcher injury in 2-3 seasons of any note, and since I started doing this back around 2023 or so, I've NEVER lost a starter for a season. I think maybe I had a 3-4 month injury to a number 4 guy once. I also think that might have been Li Beggs when he was old, had a 9 stamina, and I decided I didn't care anymore and increased his limit to 120.

[Ted]

Just checked, the online manual clearly states OOTP uses PAP.

And here's an update from a few years later.

[cheekimonk]

So what’s the purpose of Stamina?

[bcslouck]

I've heard of the PAP, but I still set max stamina guys at 110. Haven't had too many issues before. At least at the ML level. My pitch counts in the minors are general for all SP's and go down at each level down. AA and lower also have 6 man rotations for me. So I take care of my guys beforehand too and it's been pretty successful. As I say that, Norbeto Leon can't stay healthy for an inning right now. Don't think that's something I caused though.

[Ted]

So what’s the purpose of Stamina?

Per the manual, higher stamina guys can throw more pitchers per start without losing effectiveness. But I don't know if you want to risk injury just to get another inning per start. If it affects pitcher recovery rates, I suppose you could get high stamina guys and use a 4 man rotation, but I can't find anything in the manual or forums that indicates this is the case. (Interestingly, the actual PAP research showed there was no relation to increased pitcher injury or decreased effectiveness ni the limited sample they had of modern pitchers going on 3 days rest.) So yeah, anything over 6 seems wasted.

[bcslouck]

Yeah it seemed to be more about pitches thrown. Rest should have some sort of bearing. If I have a guy throwing 120 a night but going every 6th day, is that much worse than having a guy throw 100 every 5th day?

[bcslouck]

I think the league focuses more on innings than pitch counts in the long term. The O's were all about limiting Bundy's innings, but you can't take him out after 6 if he only has 75 pitches. Even if you want to limit him to 90, get someone warmed up and bring him back out in the 7th. They did seem to change their tune and if his pitch count was low, they'd let him go. They did not let him labor through innings, because we know not all pitches are create equal. Only issue I had with how he was handled is that he should of been on a 6 man all year.

[Ted]

I've heard of the PAP, but I still set max stamina guys at 110. Haven't had too many issues before. At least at the ML level. My pitch counts in the minors are general for all SP's and go down at each level down. AA and lower also have 6 man rotations for me. So I take care of my guys beforehand too and it's been pretty successful. As I say that, Norbeto Leon can't stay healthy for an inning right now. Don't think that's something I caused though.

The newer PAP model takes into account that young pitchers (25 or under) are far more susceptible to injury when throwing more than 100 pitchers per start. This is due in large part to the fact that guys who are still pitching in their late thirties have arms that have been proven to hold up. Frankly, I'm not a huge fan of PAP. I think it's more of a case where someone made a model to fit a data, but that's all it is. I don't think that its predictive for any individual pitcher, but until Markus says OOTP isn't using it, I'm keeping those counts set at 100. The problem with OOTP's management is, your starter is always going to throw max pitches if he's being effective until the game is over or he has to come out. You never have the case where your starter goes 6, gives up three, but you've scored 8 and your managers goes, "Let's just take the dude out at 83 pitches, give him a break." If you have good pitchers, then you're actually much more likely to have injury if you set the limit to 110, because they won't get knocked out at 80 pitches all the time.

[Ted]

Yeah it seemed to be more about pitches thrown. Rest should have some sort of bearing. If I have a guy throwing 120 a night but going every 6th day, is that much worse than having a guy throw 100 every 5th day?

The actual research injury says that yes, in fact it is worse to throw more pitches, even with more rest. It makes sense if you agree that injury risk goes up with bad mechanics, and we know mechanics start to decline with fatigue. That's why pitch 121 rated as exponentially worse than pitch 101. The model and data are pretty good overall, but they just don't apply to one individual that well, so using them the way OOTP uses them is questionable to me. However a video game has to do SOMETHING to model pitcher injury.

[Ted]

Either way, whether you like it or not, PAP is used by the game, so I won't be setting counts any higher than 100. And that's why I'd love the ability have my manager leave a guy in if he's got a shutout through 8 innings and is on pitch 100.

[bcslouck]

I'd like to see OOTP add in something, whether its a scouting report or rating, about a pitchers mechanics and delivery.

[Ted]

I'd like to see OOTP add in something, whether its a scouting report or rating, about a pitchers mechanics and delivery.

This would be cool. All we have now is the "injury proneness" rating. I can tell you, after a couple cases of bad luck, I no longer draft any pitchers with a "Fragile" rating in the top half of the draft.

[Ted]

This is a small sample size, but here are the starting pitching injuries on teams that have either no pitch counts set, or have them set higher than 110 on more than one guy (also there is a global setting you can use in the manager settings so one of these teams might have that set)

Atlantic City - Eduardo Lopez
Des Moines - Mike Davis
Edmonton - Ed Kinney
Havana - Ernie Kinney
Huntsville - Steve Riley
Las Vegas - None
Montreal - none
Nashville - Kidanu Cherono
New Orleans - none (but then again remember last year's flood of injuries?)
Omaha - Domingo Castillo, Fernando Pacheco
Phoenix - Ignacio Rodriguez, Alex Reynard
Twin Cities- none
Valencia - Victor Hurtado, Pedro Struyk




Versus the teams that don't have a single guy higher than 100
California - none
Long Beach - Jose Lozano
Louisville - none
Mexico City - none
Rockville - none
Vancouver - Pablo Figeuroa

Some teams are in neither list because they range pitch counts from 90 to 110.

Special Cases - These teams have major pitching injuries, and I can't tell if they were in group 1 or 2. They have some guys with higher pitch limits, and some with lower I'd guess San Antonio is in the first list, and Yellow Springs the second, but Jose Chavez easily could have been in the "abused pitcher" category.

*San Antonio - Nelson Ramirez and John Wick. Mike has Ornelas set at 120, and Ramirez and Wick are high stamina pitchers so I'd assume he had them 110 or higher.

*Yellow Springs - Jose Chavez, with 4 stam and a history of injury, I'd guess Ron had him 110 or less.

[Ted]

That's pretty damning stuff. So yeah, pitch count of 100 max in OOTP is a good thing.

[bschr682]

That's pretty damning stuff. So yeah, pitch count of 100 max in OOTP is a good thing.

I haven't set a pitch count for a starter over 100 in a long time now and ive still been absolutely hammered with pitching injuries the last few years.

[Ted]

That's pretty damning stuff. So yeah, pitch count of 100 max in OOTP is a good thing.

I haven't set a pitch count for a starter over 100 in a long time now and ive still been absolutely hammered with pitching injuries the last few years.

There's still going to be a degree of randomness. But I mean, Markus told us the game uses a mathematical model where your chance of injury gues up exponentially after pitch number 100, so why would you risk it? (playoffs aside)

[bschr682]

That's pretty damning stuff. So yeah, pitch count of 100 max in OOTP is a good thing.

I haven't set a pitch count for a starter over 100 in a long time now and ive still been absolutely hammered with pitching injuries the last few years.

There's still going to be a degree of randomness. But I mean, Markus told us the game uses a mathematical model where your chance of injury gues up exponentially after pitch number 100, so why would you risk it? (playoffs aside)

I'm not saying id risk it. Im just saying setting below 100 isn't helping. Oh and I just noticed I have yet another severe arm injury. sweet.