Something I'd like to see from OOTP

[RonCo]

*Yellow Springs - Jose Chavez, with 4 stam and a history of injury, I'd guess Ron had him 110 or less.

I had him at 90 most of last year (coming off an injury), and I think 95 this year, though I bumped him to 100 and now he's got a hammy problem.

I have LaLoosh at 100-105, depending. I think I had him on 110 a week ago because I figured I needed a game to save the bullpen. Now that we're using a 4-man for a couple weeks, anyone who is going to throw on 4-days rest are getting set at 90 or so--Sanchez, with his injury problems, got an 80-pitch count on four-days rest. There's no guarantee of avoiding injury, but yes, PAP says that days rest does not really matter so much as pitched thrown while tired (I keep thinking the smart team will go back to a 4-man rotation now that pitch counts are routine).

I tend to think of Stamina and Repertoire defining how effective a guy can be over innings and ties through the order (same thing, kind of...but not quite), Pitch count and injury proneness combine to make up probability of injury. Once a guy gets a big injury, I think it's a big deal to future proneness. I think Stamina also affects recovery, but I admit I'm not sure about that.

[RonCo]

That's pretty damning stuff. So yeah, pitch count of 100 max in OOTP is a good thing.

I haven't set a pitch count for a starter over 100 in a long time now and ive still been absolutely hammered with pitching injuries the last few years.

You've had some pretty old pitchers, too. It's a big probability field.

[RonCo]

Simple math question...

If the average pitcher has a 1% chance per season to suffer a big injury, and you have a 23 year-old starter, what is the probability that he will suffer a major injury at some time in his career by age 35?

If you get that one, what is the likelihood of that same pitcher making it that far if the annual chance of injury is 5%? 10%? 15%.

Do the math and you'll understand why you need to be ready with a 6th-7th starter, and why huge contracts to in their 30s are fraught with risk.

[hr]
Follow on question, what do you think the probability of the average pitcher getting injured is?

[hr]
The answers, BTW, are 12.3%, 48.7%, 74.6%, and 87.9%. Feel free to check my math, though.

[bschr682]

That's pretty damning stuff. So yeah, pitch count of 100 max in OOTP is a good thing.

I haven't set a pitch count for a starter over 100 in a long time now and ive still been absolutely hammered with pitching injuries the last few years.

You've had some pretty old pitchers, too. It's a big probability field.

Most of my pitcher injuries have been young.

[RonCo]

And as an aside, the YS9 organization has lots of pitcher injuries, too. I don't think pitch counts remove injury opportunity. At best it reduces that probability from X to X-Y.

[Ted]

And as an aside, the YS9 organization has lots of pitcher injuries, too. I don't think pitch counts remove injury opportunity. At best it reduces that probability from X to X-Y.

I probably oversold this. They definitely don't remove injury opportunity, but I'd bet a large sum of money that a detailed analysis will show that pitchers throwing 110+ times frequently are injured more often.

[bcslouck]

As you said, I think it makes more impact on younger guys. Do you guys employ pitch counts in the minors? If not, that may be causing the injuries once they get to the BBA more than have them throw more pitches one they're there. I'm sure I know your answer Ted.

I do 70 at the lowest level and work it up to 100 at AAA. Plus, like I said earlier, I do 6 man at every level but AAA, which goes to 5. So I try to take care of them while they're developing.

[JohnC]

I will never know for sure if there is a direct connection, but there was a season where Flores had thrown 130+ pitches in games several times. We were contending so I was letting it go. The following season he started getting hurt, and has lumped badly.

[7teen]

I heard that OOTP has an algorithm that if people complain about injuries and the frequency that they occur that it ramps them up even more. Any truth to that? haha

After my rash of CEIs a few year's back, I'm just happy if my players don't die.

But I also have a pitch count on most of my guys because of all the information shared by Kyle a while back on pitching injuries.

[Ted]

As you said, I think it makes more impact on younger guys. Do you guys employ pitch counts in the minors? If not, that may be causing the injuries once they get to the BBA more than have them throw more pitches one they're there. I'm sure I know your answer Ted.

I do 70 at the lowest level and work it up to 100 at AAA. Plus, like I said earlier, I do 6 man at every level but AAA, which goes to 5. So I try to take care of them while they're developing.

Just found out yesterday when I was reading up on this, but per the manual:

"The AI now limits minor league starters to:
Triple A - 110 pitches
Double A - 100 pitches
Single A - 95 pitches
below - 90 pitches
(No limit for feeder leagues, eg college and high school)
These numbers get adjusted by the league strategy setting if it is not default, i.e. for historical minor leagues. "

I actually set lower ones based on age, but if you don't set anything, you at least get this.

[Spiccoli]

Well.... I've wondered why some of y'all set pitch limits. I thought it was a strategy thing, not injury prevention. I've probably avoided the injury bug since most of my starters are young. However, if this thing is actual hard coded game mechanic, then it would be foolishness to ignore it and take risks rolling the dice any longer. My starters routinely go 105-115 pitches. Raynor already 4 complete games so far. However, I've never seem them so much higher than that. Maybe 120 once or twice over a season.... maybe. I'll pay attention now though.

Will a manager pull a pitcher in the middle of an at-bat if he hits his limit?

[bcslouck]

Well.... I've wondered why some of y'all set pitch limits. I thought it was a strategy thing, not injury prevention. I've probably avoided the injury bug since most of my starters are young. However, if this thing is actual hard coded game mechanic, then it would be foolishness to ignore it and take risks rolling the dice any longer. My starters routinely go 105-115 pitches. Raynor already 4 complete games so far. However, I've never seem them so much higher than that. Maybe 120 once or twice over a season.... maybe. I'll pay attention now though.

Will a manager pull a pitcher in the middle of an at-bat if he hits his limit?

I forgot to set it on Canales, and he pitched like 3 games in a row over 130 pitches. So they'll let them go if you don't watch it. I've always had a pitch count max. Didn't really know about the PAP until I joined this league.

[Ted]

Well.... I've wondered why some of y'all set pitch limits. I thought it was a strategy thing, not injury prevention. I've probably avoided the injury bug since most of my starters are young. However, if this thing is actual hard coded game mechanic, then it would be foolishness to ignore it and take risks rolling the dice any longer. My starters routinely go 105-115 pitches. Raynor already 4 complete games so far. However, I've never seem them so much higher than that. Maybe 120 once or twice over a season.... maybe. I'll pay attention now though.

Will a manager pull a pitcher in the middle of an at-bat if he hits his limit?

Pitchers will always finish the at bat.

[usnspecialist]

I just ran an internal audit on my own team, and came up with some interesting results... One thing i am curious about is if PAP takes into account the type of pitches being thrown. A flame thrower going 120 pitches is not exactly the same as a knuckleballer doing the same.

[Ted]

I just ran an internal audit on my own team, and came up with some interesting results... One thing i am curious about is if PAP takes into account the type of pitches being thrown. A flame thrower going 120 pitches is not exactly the same as a knuckleballer doing the same.

PAP is purely numbers. That's why it's not a very good model when applied to individual pitchers. If you want to know more about it, I put the links up to the BP articles about it earlier in this thread.

[bcslouck]

I just ran an internal audit on my own team, and came up with some interesting results... One thing i am curious about is if PAP takes into account the type of pitches being thrown. A flame thrower going 120 pitches is not exactly the same as a knuckleballer doing the same.

PAP is purely numbers. That's why it's not a very good model when applied to individual pitchers. If you want to know more about it, I put the links up to the BP articles about it earlier in this thread.

It is, but it did mention that 120 pitches by Tim Wakefield are different than 120 by Kerry Wood (article written in '98).

[Ted]

I just ran an internal audit on my own team, and came up with some interesting results... One thing i am curious about is if PAP takes into account the type of pitches being thrown. A flame thrower going 120 pitches is not exactly the same as a knuckleballer doing the same.

PAP is purely numbers. That's why it's not a very good model when applied to individual pitchers. If you want to know more about it, I put the links up to the BP articles about it earlier in this thread.

It is, but it did mention that 120 pitches by Tim Wakefield are different than 120 by Kerry Wood (article written in '98).

Yeah, they do a good job of admitting their own flaws, like most BP articles. I just think it's a pretty limited model overall if it's not predictive, and it's not. I think the stuff that's far more interesting is the findings about 4 man versus five man rotations, and use of starting pitchers in relief. I haven't seen much since PAP about trying to predict pitcher injury, but I'm not always the most up to date guy on the new stuff. I usually just read up after someone else mentions it. Anyone know of anything? I'd love to see some model of pitcher overuse that takes into account pitch type, or arm angle or whatever.

[udlb58]

Yeah, I usually never put anyone over 110 but Nunez is different for me this year. He just bumped to 6 movement and I want to squeeze every ounce of competent play he has in him before it drops again. He isn't a particularly good clubhouse guy, so there isn't much use to having him (other than as a long reliever) if he's giving up over 2 HR/9. So if he gets hurt, meh. I figure anything I get out of him is a bonus at this point.

Meanwhile, Crow has averaged about 90 pitches per game for me, and has four DL stints of a month+. So it won't prevent injury altogether when the player is already injury prone (as Ted has stated earlier in the thread)

[bschr682]

2 more...

[cheekimonk]

So, to continue this topic, I've had the following injuries so far this season (with pitch counts and PPG):

22yo Natraj Dawar - torn labrum (7 months) - 100 limit; 90 PPG (he had 63 PPG in 2032 but only in 3 starts...has had 16 starts this year)
23yo Guillermo Martinez - sprained ankle (8 weeks) - 110 limit; 96 PPG

Here's where it gets interesting:

20yo Pei Pao (AA) - bone spur elbow (5 months) - I meant to set a pitch count but apparently it didn't take; 85 PPG
18yo Jorge Ferringo (S A) - acute elbow soreness (6 weeks) - I meant to set a pitch count but apparently it didn't take; 85 PPG
17yo Alfredo Perales (R) - biceps strain (1 month) - I meant to set a pitch count but apparently it didn't take; 79 PPG

Those are all of my SPs who missed over a month. Other teams have had more, I know, but wanted to add some data points. Ferringo has a little higher PPG than I'd like for someone his age, but Pao and Perales aren't that bad. The interesting bit is Dawar and Martinez. Dawar has had 6 games over 100 pitches but most in the 101-106 range. Martinez pitched over 100 in 6 games, too, but he reached 112+ in 3 of those. He (Martinez) also has a "Fragile" injury rating.

I'm most upset about Pao and Perales as they are in my top prospects list (for whatever that's worth).