Positional adjustment for WAR

[Ted]

Does anyone else think these things are far too extreme? (I've thought about it before but remembered when I was looking at Archer and Glover) Does a shortstop really deserve to get credit for 25 more runs than a DH (roughly 2.5 wins) right off the bat, before they do anything? Does a DH really deserve a 5 run (0.5) WAR deficit compared to 1B, when the vast majority of first baseman have zero impact relative to one another at a non-impactful defensive position? (although I get that the DH might be bad at first)?

Per fangraphs
Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

I mean, if you could have a replacement level hitting SS and a replacement level hitting 1B, and if they play league average defense the SS will be "worth" 1.75 WAR and the 1B will be -1.25. That just doesn't pass the sniff test in my mind. Yes, if you have a shitty hitting 1B it's worse than a shitty hitting SS, but THAT much?

I think the problem lies in how you look at WAR. It just doesn't take into account the scarcity of types of players at certain positions. No hit good glove defenders are a dime a dozen. Why should they be rated as so valuable? Truly elite hitters are tremendously rare, at any position. It's good for comparing players at the same position, but I think the positional adjustments are too varied to compare across positions. That is unless you really thinkArmando Reyes (.191/.235/.350, great defense at 3B this year, 1.0 WAR so far) is only worth one fewer win this year than Francisco Liriano (.260/.291/.556 1.8 WAR, neutral defense in corner OF positions this year)

Look, I'm an advanced stats guy, I love the stuff. But the idea that these guys are even close to the same level of wins above replacement is absurd. I did some sniffing around to look see if anyone agreed, and it took all of ten minutes to find 3 well researched articles that used more recently collected defensive metrics to show the difference between CF (now the rarest position to have a very good defender at, taking over from SS) and DH should be anywhere from 12-18 runs.

Anyway, I hate agreeing with Brett, but based on this, I will not be using WAR for players at drastically different defensive positions to make any sort of comparison of talent until this is fixed.

[njherdfan]

It's interesting.

I feel like in real MLB, elite defenders aren't a dime-a-dozen. Someone like Brendan Ryan comes to mind, because he was a good enough defensive shortstop to remain in the majors for a long time despite not hitting. In OOTP, however, I agree. It seems like there are a lot more very highly related defensive players, which might confirm your point.

[felipe]

wow...thanks for this...I always just kinda used WAR without worrying how it was derived

big eye opener

[Ted]

It's interesting.

I feel like in real MLB, elite defenders aren't a dime-a-dozen. Someone like Brendan Ryan comes to mind, because he was a good enough defensive shortstop to remain in the majors for a long time despite not hitting. In OOTP, however, I agree. It seems like there are a lot more very highly related defensive players, which might confirm your point.

I may have mispoke. It's not that elite defenders are a dime a dozen, but no stick, acceptable or even slightly above average defenders are, even in MLB. Every organization has 2-3 of these guys that just never hit well enough to progress through the system. Defensive adequacy simply isnt as rare as offensive adequacy. So why should the simply positional adjustment (which happens before any sort of calculation for even further defensive runs saved or cost) be so huge?

[udlb58]

Depends if you are saying replacement level offense relative to his position or replacement level relative to all hitters in the league. If it is just overall replacement, meaning both the SS and 1B have the same offensive numbers (and they are both the same level of defensive player, relative to their position), then yes I'd value the adequate defensive SS with a replacement bat at 2-3 wins more than a DH with a replacement level bat.

I can pick up literally any replacement level position player out of AAA and plop him in at DH; there are only a select few who are replacement level offensively and at least capable defensively at the premium positions. William McIntyre, Drew Zod, Edgar Jones, Francisco Rivera, Tisnal Blythin, Dave Romero, Johnnie Oh, Juan Flores, and Stephen Ireland are all current free agents capable of at least replacement level offense. There isn't near that offensive talent readily available in free agency if you are looking for a replacement player who is competent at SS (every team but NO has a starting SS of at least 6 rating at SS, so I was looking at guys with at least a 6 rating at SS).

Your selecting of Reyes and Liriano is a little skewed, IMO. Reyes has been an elite defender at 3B this year, and Liriano has largely been a platoon player. Wouldn't you consider an .850 OPS and 0 ZR basically a little above league average for a LF in the BBA? Liriano is pretty much on pace for an above average WAR for LF, if you account for his fewer PA.

I do wonder sometimes if WAR takes defense into consideration too much, which would be the real problem with Reyes. Is the 2nd best defensive 3B still worth playing if he has a sub-.600 OPS? Is Pedro Canales really only half a win more valuable than Luis Tejada?

This is why it is always dangerous to use one stat, even WAR, to determine a player's value.

[udlb58]

It's interesting.

I feel like in real MLB, elite defenders aren't a dime-a-dozen. Someone like Brendan Ryan comes to mind, because he was a good enough defensive shortstop to remain in the majors for a long time despite not hitting. In OOTP, however, I agree. It seems like there are a lot more very highly related defensive players, which might confirm your point.

I may have mispoke. It's not that elite defenders are a dime a dozen, but no stick, acceptable or even slightly above average defenders are, even in MLB. Every organization has 2-3 of these guys that just never hit well enough to progress through the system. Defensive adequacy simply isnt as rare as offensive adequacy. So why should the simply positional adjustment (which happens before any sort of calculation for even further defensive runs saved or cost) be so huge?

No, but offensive adequacy (relative to all positions) is much easier to find in a DH/1B than any other position.

[Ted]

I would argue that offensive adequacy is somewhat relative to position, so you could argue that it's just as easy to find at any other position as 1B/DH. Again, I'm not saying that there shouldn't be adjustment, just that they shouldn't be so huge.

[udlb58]

I would argue that offensive adequacy is somewhat relative to position, so you could argue that it's just as easy to find at any other position as 1B/DH. Again, I'm not saying that there shouldn't be adjustment, just that they shouldn't be so huge.

Eh. Maybe the calculation is a little too harsh on corner OFs, but I don't really think that is the case with 1B/DH.

[Ted]

I would argue that offensive adequacy is somewhat relative to position, so you could argue that it's just as easy to find at any other position as 1B/DH. Again, I'm not saying that there shouldn't be adjustment, just that they shouldn't be so huge.

Eh. Maybe the calculation is a little too harsh on corner OFs, but I don't really think that is the case with 1B/DH.

We sir, will simply have to disagree then.

[Bumstead]

I'm not a proponent of WAR. Sure, I will use it in my writing or if it backs up something I'm saying, but I think it is a bit over the top, in general. I don't want to argue specifics about it. Defensive WAR, I'm not buying what they are selling. I just don't buy it as comparable by position and it skews overall WAR...but, alas, I love the traditional stats, but I understand some of them aren't as "important" as we used to think, but I also don't buy that they aren't important at all.

That's all I have to say about that...

Dug Riddler

[udlb58]

I would argue that offensive adequacy is somewhat relative to position, so you could argue that it's just as easy to find at any other position as 1B/DH. Again, I'm not saying that there shouldn't be adjustment, just that they shouldn't be so huge.

Eh. Maybe the calculation is a little too harsh on corner OFs, but I don't really think that is the case with 1B/DH.

We sir, will simply have to disagree then.

Overall, I do wonder how up-to-date some of the 'advanced' stats are in OOTP.

[agrudez]

If my DH has a 100 OPS+, it is probably because I got him off waivers.

If my SS has a 100 OPS+, it is probably because I pay him 10M/year.

So, yeah - big difference.

[Chey]

The only position where I think the WAR rating -- in OOTP specifically, for some reason -- is catcher. Largely on the basis of catcher defence being more or less worthless, the multiplier they get seems bananas to me.

[Chey]

If my DH has a 100 OPS+, it is probably because I got him off waivers.

If my SS has a 100 OPS+, it is probably because I pay him 10M/year.

So, yeah - big difference.

Very well put.

[Ted]

If my DH has a 100 OPS+, it is probably because I got him off waivers.

If my SS has a 100 OPS+, it is probably because I pay him 10M/year.

So, yeah - big difference.

Very well put.

So, I think this is missing the point. I'm not saying there shouldn't be an adjustment, but that it should be more like 16-18 runs for these positions rather than 23. Want a real life baseball example?

Last year David Ortiz, a DH, hit .315/.401/.620, 163 WRC+. Second highest in the game (to Trout's 171). Had a tremendous season. Highest wOBA. Better than Mike Trout. (.419 to .418). 4.4 WAR. Lost 17.5 runs of his offensive production when valued simply because he is a DH (and some more because he's terrible on the basepaths).

Who else was in the 4.4 WAR range in 2026?

Cesar Hernandez. .291/.373/.393. 108 wRC+ .335wOBA. Just above league average but well above league avg for 2B (for wOBA, where he rates better than wRC+, Hernandez is 29 points better than a league average 2B), however not even close to as far above Ortiz was compared to DH only (.329 league average for a DH so 90 points higher). Ortiz was THREE FREAKING TIMES a better hitter compared to league average AT HIS POSITION than Cesar Hernandez, but has an identical WAR because Hernandez plays second base (and fielded it quite well).

I'm not trying to dog Hernandez. He's a fine player, and I'd love to have him, but he shouldn't have the same score in a run differential production category as the SECOND BEST FUCKING HITTER IN BASEBALL LAST YEAR (and remember we aren't talking about age or expected future return, i.e., yes Ortiz is old).

This doesn't even include the ridiculous plus 12 run catcher adjustment that says Jonathan Lucroy (again, a fine player) created as many wins for his team as Ortiz did last year.

[recte44]

Dude, don't bring Jonathan Lucroy into this.

[Ted]

Dude, don't bring Jonathan Lucroy into this.

I knew I'd hear from you after that.