2038, BBA Draft Chatter

[Ted]

I get what you're saying, Ron. It's not so much that I expect the game's 20/80 grades to be right anymore. It's just that regardless of what player talent approximation you use, guys going in the third round this year will be as good as guys we've taken in the end of the first round in drafts as recent as five years ago. And the guys from five years ago lumped most of the time.

The target is just moving too much year to year. Regardless of how you decide to eval the players, it's not really that realistic to have an entire first round of players that look like potential HOF caliber. Similarly, the drafts Kyle for instance hated where by the second round you were taking players that projected as AAA and maybe even AA were stupid too. The draft classes are just way too freaking bipolar.

All you have to do to have reasonable draft classes is take the total number of players in pro baseball, divide that by the number of players you want to put into the feeder class, and then make that feeder class represent the existing player pool. The top player in the class is the median of the top X players you got from your division, the second player player is the median of the next group. Then you keep track of positions and build in a little randomness so there's a bit of year to year variance. I used to do this by hand back in the day for a less sophisticated league, but it was still thousands of players and all it took was an excel spreadsheet and 3 or so hours of my time. Why software can't do a better job of it seems strange to me.

(As Ted rails on OOTP again, the game he loves, but you'd never know it from listening to him.)

[JimBob2232]

The real question, in my mind, is how well we collectively adapt to this. Will we start trading 70 potential players at the deadline for a good rental player?

I think we need to move that direction.

But personally, I’m still trying to figure out the 20/80 thing. It made me very cautious to pull deals last year. This throws a whole new wrinkle in it. I’m rethinking the entirety of how I build my franchise, and so I am being very cautious until I figure it out.

That’s just me...

[felipe]

I like the pool, like it is this year

Yes many will bust...just like real life

It gives us GMs tough decisions just like real life;

Do I take the developed guy with a lower ceiling, or the guy I can dream on with all the tools?

I much prefer it, and I think it’s much more fun and mire realistic.

So suck it, Ted

[RonCo]

The real question, in my mind, is how well we collectively adapt to this. Will we start trading 70 potential players at the deadline for a good rental player?

I think we need to move that direction.

This is the right question, regardless. We will need to get better at reading development levels and calculating probability of arrival into the mix. This has always been he case, of course. That skill has always been valuable, but that skill becomes more valuable in this talent-loaded world than it was before.

[Ted]

I like the pool, like it is this year

Yes many will bust...just like real life

It gives us GMs tough decisions just like real life;

Do I take the developed guy with a lower ceiling, or the guy I can dream on with all the tools?

I much prefer it, and I think it’s much more fun and mire realistic.

So suck it, Ted

Way to misconstrue my entire argument into "guys in the draft shouldn't bust." Excellent insight. Truly enlightening. Thank you for this contribution.

[felipe]

Sounds like you’re working for you car, man

Simplify

[Ted]

Sounds like you’re working for you car, man

Simplify

My car was made in 1999, so I'm pretty sure the Brewster is actually more complicated than it is.

[Bumstead]

Sounds like you’re working for you car, man

Simplify

My car was made in 1999, so I'm pretty sure the Brewster is actually more complicated than it is.

It will be a "classic" in 5 years!

[RonCo]

Probably even has those weird cranks for rolling down the windows.

[Bumstead]

Probably even has those weird cranks for rolling down the windows.

Surely Ted sprung for power window! Ted?

[Ted]

Probably even has those weird cranks for rolling down the windows.

Surely Ted sprung for power window! Ted?

Power windows all the way! I do have a tape deck though.

[Ted]

Sounds like you’re working for you car, man

Simplify

My car was made in 1999, so I'm pretty sure the Brewster is actually more complicated than it is.

It will be a "classic" in 5 years!

I know! I don't know if it will make it that long, but if it does, I'm totally putting classic plates on my 99 honda accord, dents, chipped pain and all.

[recte44]

BTW, the 6 hour clock was finally started yesterday if you didn't notice.

[Bumstead]

BTW, the 6 hour clock was finally started yesterday if you didn't notice.

I noticed.

I have set a list of 9 for the weekend and, yes, I know I'm 20 some odd picks away. Go ahead and try and figure out my 9...

[Ted]

I can't believe that Todd Rice made it to Seattle. In a draft full of high upside but raw as can be corner OF's and DH's, here's a 19 year old lefty plus defending contact/gap power machine CF who could be an emergency player in the bigs right now, and probably be able to be a regular next season.

[recte44]

I can't believe that Todd Rice made it to Seattle. In a draft full of high upside but raw as can be corner OF's and DH's, here's a 19 year old lefty plus defending contact/gap power machine CF who could be an emergency player in the bigs right now, and probably be able to be a regular next season.

Was really hoping he'd make it to my S1 pick- knew it was a longshot.

[ae37jr]

I almost picked Rice at 19. It was a tough decision. The thing I liked more about Ramos is his split potential. 11/9/8/6/7 VS RHP. He also should be capable of playing first base and both corner outfield spots. Plus has better intangibles as well as being durable.

[crobillard]

Yeah, Todd Rice is an excellent value pick for Seattle. These power guys were too enticing to me at 13, but he wouldn't have made it past me at 32 that's for sure. Great player and well developed.

[RonCo]

I picked my guy with an eye toward SP convention next off season.

[crobillard]

I picked my guy with an eye toward SP convention next off season.

Great idea. I almost never think about that kinda stuff while drafting so you smart dudes are going to have the upperhand on me with that kind of stuff.