Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

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Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:42 pm

Off Topic
So, in my own weird way, I got interested in figuring out how to pull data from our box scores--I admit the main goal of this was to figure out if I could enhance the defensive data I provide down ti individual players, which may still be possible...but I got distracted.

So I'm going to post a series of interesting, but probably not that useful data just because ... well ... fun?

There's going to be a bunch...
Here's another interesting one, which maybe should even make a difference ... dunno. But here are the number of games in which the wind blows in and out and right and left ... or whatever.

DirectionAPRMAYJUNJULAUGALL
in104.0119.0110.0119.058.0510.0
out136.0158.0168.0153.088.0703.0
left to right44.061.047.049.024.0225.0
right to left35.031.041.023.021.0151.0
None110.083.065.067.048.0373.0
Grand Total429.0452.0431.0411.0239.01962.0

Of interest, perhaps, is that the wind blows out more often than it blows in, and left to right more than right to left. Does this help power hitters? LHB over RHB? Dunno. But it's interesting to think about, and I'm now thinking that with a little work I could make this script work with the one I use to parse game logs, and thereby get a feel for how important these things actually are.

Jesus, someone stop me before I go insane.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:46 pm

Same data, but cut by home team:



Row LabelsinoutL to RR to LNoneAlll
Atlantic City Gamblers517664
Boise Spuds416313559
Brooklyn Robins4672863
Calgary Pioneers4464761
Charlotte Cougars131334161
Charm City Jimmies151126456
Chicago Black Sox46510465
Des Moines Kernels11505167
Edmonton Jackrabbits111428356
Hawaii Tropics133513759
Jacksonville Hurricanes4982564
Las Vegas Hustlers225433064
Long Beach Surfers6513464
Louisville Sluggers8437361
Madison Wolves5454357
Mexico City Aztecs441853
Montreal Blazers42023763
Nashville Bluebirds131929364
New Orleans Crawdads157413764
Omaha Cyclones47611064
Phoenix Talons6262
Portland Lumberjacks419243362
Rockville Pikemen48612167
Sacramento Mad Popes6485261
San Antonio Outlaws32413462
San Fernando Bears12373658
Seattle Storm93811462
Twin Cities River Monsters7452963
Valencia Stars181720459
Vancouver Mounties36143356
Wichita Aviators54121058
Yellow Springs Nine851143563
Grand Total5107032251513731962

Interesting to note that park does seem to matter if the wind blows in or out and R/L or L/R.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:49 pm

Had to update this last one because I mistakenly left spring training games in the cut.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by HoosierVic » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:27 pm

The wind almost always blows in at Black Sox Park, directly over the Little Cal ...

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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by Ted » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:31 pm

I had thought for sure Sacramento would have wind blowing in.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by jleddy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:05 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:42 pm
Jesus, someone stop me before I go insane.
What is necessary and I'll step in.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:05 pm

Here's more interesting stuff for Sacramento...wind blowing in vs. wind blowing out...per field...

Row LabelsCFLFRFAll
in2136
out1452948
LF to RF55
RF to LF22
Grand Total1683761
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by Ted » Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:08 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:05 pm
Here's more interesting stuff for Sacramento...wind blowing in vs. wind blowing out...per field...

Row LabelsCFLFRFAll
in2136
out1452948
LF to RF55
RF to LF22
Grand Total1683761
Gotta be the temp then. All I know is that before I changed it, Pacific field was death to lefty power hitters. Just neutered them. Even more than the park factors would predict. It would be interesting to see a correlation between park factors and performance relative to league means. I'm almost certain there are significant over-riding factors.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:14 pm

I'll see if I can overlay it with game log data.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by RonCo » Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:15 pm

It also makes me think about april schedules and how they influence things based on where you play.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by Ted » Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:29 pm

RonCo wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:15 pm
It also makes me think about april schedules and how they influence things based on where you play.
I started to get the impression that performance in early seasons games has a big impact on later season play. I don't know if that is realistic or not. Maybe a guy starting slowly really does get into his head and he just has a hard time digging out of it.

All I know is that when I changed my park, I went from frustratingly underachieving (in my mind) to dominant. The big difference was not scoring any runs in April and early May, so basically having every game be a coin flip to see who would in 1-0 or 2-1, to blowing up teams through the whole month, and getting off to crazy good starts. It wasn't a large enough sample to be sure. But I didn't really change a thing with how I built teams, and I had really consistent personnel.

I wasn't really paying attention before (because Randy wasn't crowing at me about San Fernando leading when predicted to suck) but I did see that Sacramento started pretty damn slow and has taken off in the hot months, which was my pattern always before moving the fences in. I'd be interested to know if they did that the las couple seasons after he moved them back.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:18 am

Ted wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:29 pm
RonCo wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:15 pm
It also makes me think about april schedules and how they influence things based on where you play.
I started to get the impression that performance in early seasons games has a big impact on later season play. I don't know if that is realistic or not. Maybe a guy starting slowly really does get into his head and he just has a hard time digging out of it.

All I know is that when I changed my park, I went from frustratingly underachieving (in my mind) to dominant. The big difference was not scoring any runs in April and early May, so basically having every game be a coin flip to see who would in 1-0 or 2-1, to blowing up teams through the whole month, and getting off to crazy good starts. It wasn't a large enough sample to be sure. But I didn't really change a thing with how I built teams, and I had really consistent personnel.

I wasn't really paying attention before (because Randy wasn't crowing at me about San Fernando leading when predicted to suck) but I did see that Sacramento started pretty damn slow and has taken off in the hot months, which was my pattern always before moving the fences in. I'd be interested to know if they did that the las couple seasons after he moved them back.
o don't worry, the crowing will come back when I pass the preseason predicted win total 5-6 weeks before the end of the season.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by RonCo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:28 am

Ted wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:29 pm
I started to get the impression that performance in early seasons games has a big impact on later season play. I don't know if that is realistic or not. Maybe a guy starting slowly really does get into his head and he just has a hard time digging out of it.

All I know is that when I changed my park, I went from frustratingly underachieving (in my mind) to dominant. The big difference was not scoring any runs in April and early May, so basically having every game be a coin flip to see who would in 1-0 or 2-1, to blowing up teams through the whole month, and getting off to crazy good starts. It wasn't a large enough sample to be sure. But I didn't really change a thing with how I built teams, and I had really consistent personnel.
In ways, those two points contradict each other. Your CAL teams would suck for several years in April, then claw their way back to respectability in June/July. So poor performances in April didn't cause your guys to have poor performances later. On the whole, anyway.

Similar, Rockville's past two seasons have been defined on a similar track...horrible in April/May, but then rising up through the year.

I do think there are some individual toggles for players to have mega-seasons or total dogs. See McNeill, Lucas, 2037. Or Andy McKinney in his 5.8 WAR ROY season. But that's a little different than "past performance drives future performance."
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by RonCo » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:33 am

What I'm thinking about regarding temps is more in the range of if a team plays more games in hot weather or controlled/roofed places, do they score more runs (or give up more). I'd assume so. In that case, do individual races/voting (All-Star appearances) get impacted. This could, for example, make an argument around Claudio Defazio's difficulty to achieve All-Star appearances. That probably goes under the Temp thread, though.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by Ted » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:40 pm

RonCo wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:28 am
Ted wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:29 pm
I started to get the impression that performance in early seasons games has a big impact on later season play. I don't know if that is realistic or not. Maybe a guy starting slowly really does get into his head and he just has a hard time digging out of it.

All I know is that when I changed my park, I went from frustratingly underachieving (in my mind) to dominant. The big difference was not scoring any runs in April and early May, so basically having every game be a coin flip to see who would in 1-0 or 2-1, to blowing up teams through the whole month, and getting off to crazy good starts. It wasn't a large enough sample to be sure. But I didn't really change a thing with how I built teams, and I had really consistent personnel.
In ways, those two points contradict each other. Your CAL teams would suck for several years in April, then claw their way back to respectability in June/July. So poor performances in April didn't cause your guys to have poor performances later. On the whole, anyway.

Similar, Rockville's past two seasons have been defined on a similar track...horrible in April/May, but then rising up through the year.

I do think there are some individual toggles for players to have mega-seasons or total dogs. See McNeill, Lucas, 2037. Or Andy McKinney in his 5.8 WAR ROY season. But that's a little different than "past performance drives future performance."
Yeah, I suppose I combined arguments in a goofy way like I often do. I was trying to say poor individual performances lead to slow starts by what should have been monster teams. And when I negated the weather causing slow starts, those monsters teams performed like monster teams. What I should have pointed out, is that certain players would get off to slow starts, and never really recover. Yo could point out that their early numbers were probably just so bad that the season end stats looked worse than say mid may through september actually were. But look at a guy like Fernando Moreno. https://statspl.us/brewster/reports/new ... 21605.html. Moving the fences in basically ressurected his career. And sure, as a lefty power hitter, he benefitted the most from the actual dimension changed. But I'd point out he fell apart in Brooklyn, which has a very similar temperature curve to Sacramento.

And yeah, this should be in the ballpark temp thread. So I'll put my theory there.
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Re: Interesting Chart of the Day: Is It a Blustery Day or What?

Post by CTBrewCrew » Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:09 pm

Hmmm looks like those industrial strength fans we installed behind home plate are working nicely....
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