Pitch Types and Effect

Discuss the Brewster Baseball Association here!
User avatar
recte44
GB: Commissioner
Posts: 43173
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 12:14 pm
Location: Oconomowoc, WI
Has thanked: 143 times
Been thanked: 1639 times
Contact:

Pitch Types and Effect

Post by recte44 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:15 pm

So it's RP Conversion season and I figured that as long as I found this awesome post from the OOTP Boards, I should share it with everyone. Note this is only one person's opinion.
Off Topic
Ranking of OOTP Pitch Types

1. Knuckleball: Far and away the best pitch in the game. It is among the best strikeout pitches, and has one of the best affects on expected FIP. But not only that, it is the only pitch that meaningfully reduces BABIP, and it reduces it so much that expected ERA will be much lower than FIP.

2. Slider: This is a great pitch that has the best affect on a pitcher's Movement and Control in OOTP. It has an average affect on Stuff. One of the top pitches no matter how you look at it.

3. Changeup/Circle Change: I found that these two pitches are identical as far as the OOTP engine is concerned. Only difference is the grip on the ball, the stats will be the same. You can have both of these pitches though and it'll be a double-positive. The Changeup is a strikeout pitch with the best affect on Stuff (along with the Knuckleball). It also has a small penalty to Movement and Control, and a hidden penalty to stolen bases (at least compared to a Fastball). But it's a great pitch for a pitcher's FIP.

4. Knuckle Curve: Unfortunately this pitch doesn't lower BABIP like the regular Knuckleball. But it looks like the most balanced pitch in the game, with solid boosts to all of Stuff, Movement, and Control. A nice pitch to add to a knuckler's arsenal and a top tier pitch on its own.

5. Forkball: Gives a nice boost to Stuff, and neutral on Movement/Control.

6. Curveball: Gives a similar boost to Stuff as the Forkball and Knuckle Curve, but it also gives a small penalty to Movement and Control.

7: Sinker: Not a good strikeout pitch with amongst the lowest boost to Stuff, but it gives the second best boost to Movement and Control after the Slider.

8. Screwball: An odd pitch that gives a good boost to Stuff similar to the Fork/Curve/Knuckle Curve... but it's the most homer and walk prone pitch in the game with the biggest penalty to Movement and Control.

9. Splitter: Nothing stands out about this pitch. Small boost to Stuff, and sometimes a small penalty to Movement and Control.

10. Cutter: Has a weak affect on Stuff like the Sinker, but doesn't have the same benefit to Movement and Control (has a small penalty). Sorry Mariano, but this is the worst pitch in the game. Aside from perhaps the harder to discern following pitch...

N/A. Fastball: I can't rate the generic Fastball because it seems like there's more variables at play with this one. By some of my tests it seems like the worst strikeout pitch in the game. But the Fastball is definitely affected by a pitcher's velocity (faster = better). It's hard to give a definitive ranking to this pitch without extensive testing.

Other Notes

- Oddly, if a pitcher has any rating in the generic Fastball pitch, he will not receive any BABIP benefit from a Knuckleball. From what I see anyway, not sure if it's a visual bug or an intended part of the game engine. So a knuckler should not add a Fastball to his arsenal.

- Remember that the above pitches mostly affect the Stuff rating, and that they're already baked into the displayed STU/MOV/CON ratings. Although the Screwball has the worst dip on pitcher MOV/CON, the affect is still pretty small and definitely offset by the added STU from the pitch. 95% of the time adding more pitches is better.

- Arm slot is interesting, and seems to only affect platoon splits. Submarine/Sidearm/Normal/Over-the-Top <--- From left to right, these arm slots have higher platoon splits. For example, a LHP Submariner will kill LHBs.

- There seems to be some interaction between pitch types, and I can't try out all the combinations. So don't take my list as definitive. There's also probably some more hidden affects of pitches that I'm not aware of.

- These rankings are based on pitches with equal ratings. So even though a Cutter isn't as good as a Slider, a really good Cutter (Mariano) is better than a bad Slider.

EDIT: Forgot to mention my testing was done with a right-handed pitcher. Perhaps the pitch rankings would change for a lefty, i.e. the Slider might not be so high.

User avatar
Lane
GB: Vice Commissioner
Posts: 6812
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:18 am
Location: Los Angeles
Has thanked: 528 times
Been thanked: 716 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by Lane » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:27 pm

Interesting. Thanks for posting after I added a cutter to my SP convert. :facepalm:
Stephen Lane
Vice Commissioner / Historian
General Manager, Long Beach Surfers
Since 2026

Image


Ex-GM, Amsterdam Neptunes, 2025 EBA Champions

User avatar
Lane
GB: Vice Commissioner
Posts: 6812
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2016 8:18 am
Location: Los Angeles
Has thanked: 528 times
Been thanked: 716 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by Lane » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:28 pm

Seriously though, as you say it's just one opinion. I think there's plenty of opinions out there that support other ideas. Looking forward to Ron jumping in here.
Stephen Lane
Vice Commissioner / Historian
General Manager, Long Beach Surfers
Since 2026

Image


Ex-GM, Amsterdam Neptunes, 2025 EBA Champions

User avatar
Rubaboo
BBA GM
Posts: 2194
Joined: Tue May 27, 2014 9:09 pm
Location: Chippewa Falls, WI
Has thanked: 201 times
Been thanked: 326 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by Rubaboo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:30 pm

Something I've known in my heart forever - the Knuckleball is king.
Fred Holmes
General Manager
Mexico City Aztecs - BBA

BBA Champs - 2052
JL Champs - 2027, 2052
JL MW Champs - 2022, 2023, 2024, 2027
JL Sun Belt Champs - 2035, 2036, 2038
JL Frontier Champs - 2051, 2052
JL Manager of the Year - 2023, 2024, 2026, 2052

jleddy
Ex-GM
Posts: 3216
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 5:46 pm
Location: Long Beach, CA
Has thanked: 3377 times
Been thanked: 1174 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by jleddy » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:33 pm

Damn you for sharing this, Recte! This would be like Fred's banana bread recipe getting leaked to the masses.

:)
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

jleddy
Ex-GM
Posts: 3216
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 5:46 pm
Location: Long Beach, CA
Has thanked: 3377 times
Been thanked: 1174 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by jleddy » Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:38 pm

There's also this post, which should hopefully confuse people even more, myself included:

Off Topic
I've always wanted to research individual pitches in OOTP and how they affect starters. This article is meant to help identify some trends and maybe give more insight to OOTP GMs.

METHOD
I created five fictional leagues in OOTP20 with 100% ratings and identical settings. I did not put a lot of time into detailing the settings; they are all fictional OOTP standard and may not mirror MLB stats perfectly.

I simmed a full 162 game season in each league and dumped the pitcher stats and ratings on the last day of the season.

Every pitcher with MLB innings and both R/L splits were counted. There were 2671 players in all. I also flipped splits for LHP to indicate same/opposite handed splits.

I calculated essential stats for all pitchers, and then sorted by pitch. For each pitch, pitchers with a 50-rated pitch or better were counted and stats were accumulated.

DISCLAIMERS
Obviously, there are numerous variables in play in OOTP. It is next to impossible to single out pitches and say with certainty how they affect performance. Consider these results with caution and view them as trends.

Despite having over 2600 players over five leagues, four pitches still had incredibly small sample sizes: the Circle Change (47 total players), Knuckle Curve (42), Knuckleball (11), and Screwball (5). Because of the limited sample, I did not include the results for these four pitches in the main body of the results, and instead give a highly speculative analysis at the end based on the results that I have.

As always, a correlation does not equal causation.

RESULTS

Link to data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

ANALYSIS

To analyse the results, I am going to rank the pitches by which I think are most useful to least useful. Everyone plays the game differently, so opinions may vary.

Cutter: The cutter stands out for being one of the most split-neutral pitches in OOTP. It has below average splits in K%, BB%, and BABIP allowed. It is slightly below average in HR%/FB and BABIP allowed, and has very few weaknesses.
Pros: Smallest splits of any pitch.
Cons: Doesn't otherwise stand out. Below average K%.

Changeup: The changeup stands out as being one of the best BB% pitches, a very low split pitch, and a low BABIP pitch. All around, it is one of the best secondary offerings, but seems to be one of the toughest to develop in the game.
Pros: Tied for lowest in BB%, very good splits, low BABIP allowed.
Cons: One of the lower K% pitches, overall above average HR%/FB rate

Fastball: Yes, the boring fastball. If you don't seek a cutter for a primary pitch, it better be a fastball in OOTP. The fastball, doesn't stand out in many areas, but it is the highest pitch in K% by a pretty large margin.
Pros: Best K% pitch
Cons: Highest HR%/FB

Curveball: The curveball is also a very low split pitch, but in almost every other way is very close to average.
Pros: Low split difference.
Cons: Doesn't really stand out otherwise in any way.

Forkball: The forkball is really, really similar to the changeup, but has slightly lower HR%/BB and not as good of splits.
Pros: Tied for lowest in BB%, below average HR%/FB
Cons: Below average K%, will give up long ball to opposite handed hitters

Splitter: Just as the changeup and forkball are very similar, the curveball and splitter also yield similar results overall. The splitter is different in that it is slightly better against same-handed batters, but does not hold it's own as well against opposite-handed batters.
Pros: all-around decent secondary offering
Cons: not very strong against opposite-handed batters

Slider: The slider has always been one of the premier MLB pitches, but from this data, it is not very exciting in OOTP. It has the highest K% rate of any secondary offering, but otherwise is average, if not below average, in almost every other way.
Pros: decent K%
Cons: one of the worst pitches against opposite handed batters

Sinker: Chicks love the long ball, and as a GM, I hate it when my pitchers allow it. The sinker is the pitch of choice for preventing home runs. However, it is one of the worst pitches in almost every other category, and one of the worst pitches for split differences.
Pros: prevents home runs, heavy groundball rate
Cons: Lowest in K%, lowest in BB%, highest in BABIP allowed, and worst for split differences in all of those areas.

SMALL SAMPLE ALERT!

Circle Change: In my study, the circle change simply didn't have enough of a sample size to be consider significant. However, the limited results were very promising. It had the highest K%, lowest BB%, and second lowest HR%/FB (after the sinker). Has OOTP provided us with an overpowered pitch? It's hard to say with such limited data, but I think the circle change may be one to target. If I had to rank it with the above pitches, I would cautiously put it first, above the cutter.
Pros: Incredible K% and BB%, low HR%/FB without the cons of the sinker.
Cons: Low sample size, not much else.

Knucleball: The knuckleball is a cult-like pitch, and people either seem to love it or hate it. In my EXTREMELY small sample, it had elevated HR%/FB, but elite BABIP allowed. It won't help your FIP, but it may still win you some games. If I had to rank it with the above pitches, I would put it ahead of the splitter but below the forkball.
Pros: Potentially a standout pitch in BABIP allowed.
Cons: Small sample size, high HR%/FB

Knuckle Curve: Craig Kimbrel is one of the game's elite relievers using an outstanding knuckle curve. However, the pitch didn't really stand out in any way in my data. Consider it similar to the slider, with lower split differences but also lower K%. If I had to rank it with the above pitches, I would put it just ahead of the slider but below the splitter and knuckleball.
Pros: lower BABIP allowed pitch.
Cons: doesn't stand out in many, if any, ways. Low sample size.

Screwball: Only 5 pitchers in 5 full fictional leagues had a screwball rated 50 or higher. It is hardly useful to make any judgements from such a small sample size, but from the data gathered, the screwball did not impress. Yes, it had the lowest split differences in K% and BB% (and is the only pitch with reverse K% splits), but underwhelmed overall across the board. If I had to rank it among the above pitches, I would put it second to last, just in front of the sinker and below the slider.
Pros: good pitch against opposite handed batters
Cons: very low sample size, below average in K%, HR%/FB, and BABIP allowed.
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

sjshaw
Ex-GM
Posts: 587
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:09 pm
Has thanked: 292 times
Been thanked: 105 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by sjshaw » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:49 pm

Adding this post to my compilation of posts that will help you play OOTP better.

Do you guys have direct links to these posts at OOTP?
GM, Louisville Sluggers, end of 2038 - current

Image

User avatar
recte44
GB: Commissioner
Posts: 43173
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 12:14 pm
Location: Oconomowoc, WI
Has thanked: 143 times
Been thanked: 1639 times
Contact:

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by recte44 » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:53 pm

What do you mean, direct links?

sjshaw
Ex-GM
Posts: 587
Joined: Sat Mar 30, 2019 4:09 pm
Has thanked: 292 times
Been thanked: 105 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by sjshaw » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:53 pm

recte44 wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:53 pm
What do you mean, direct links?
Links to these forum posts at OOTP.
GM, Louisville Sluggers, end of 2038 - current

Image

jleddy
Ex-GM
Posts: 3216
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 5:46 pm
Location: Long Beach, CA
Has thanked: 3377 times
Been thanked: 1174 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by jleddy » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:56 pm

sjshaw wrote:
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:49 pm
Adding this post to my compilation of posts that will help you play OOTP better.

Do you guys have direct links to these posts at OOTP?
For the excerpt I posted: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/sho ... p?t=305510
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

User avatar
shoeless.db
BBA GM
Posts: 2343
Joined: Wed May 29, 2019 10:25 pm
Has thanked: 1848 times
Been thanked: 1101 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by shoeless.db » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:58 pm

Ron is right all along when he concludes his articles with: "I have no idea."
Sacramento Mad Popes
-- Vic Caleca Team News Award Winner 2052
-- BBA Champion 2053
— The Heartland Sucks
-- Pacific Champs 2040, 2042, 2043, 2047, 2048, 2049, 2051, 2053, 2054, 2058
Life is a bit more beautiful when time is measured by the half inning rather than the half hour.

Joshua Biddle
Ex-GM
Posts: 816
Joined: Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:34 pm
Location: Wilmington, Delaware
Has thanked: 28 times
Been thanked: 31 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by Joshua Biddle » Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:35 pm

Interesting stuff
Image

User avatar
RonCo
GB: JL Frontier Division Director
Posts: 19965
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2015 10:48 pm
Has thanked: 2006 times
Been thanked: 2971 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by RonCo » Thu Dec 12, 2019 6:31 pm

Well, I have no idea. :)

There are several ways to test the effect of individual pitches, but in the end the answer to what pitch is best is probably "it depends." To me, it often depends on what other pitches a guy has. It also depends on arm slot (which is all about platoon effect splits), and the other base ratings a guy has. I'm fairly big on cutters and forkballs, for example--some of that has to do with the fact that these pitches influence splits to a lesser degree than other pitches. You can see this direction in the game's editor, but it shows up in stats and ratings, too.

Does that make them the best pitches?

Well, maybe. I can make a decent argument that this pitchers with those pitches more versitiile, or at least less subject to big innings.

Perhaps a pitcher with limited base movement/GB% really benefits more from a sinker than one without. This is a hard one to really test. Doable, but hard to set-up and control.

The knuckleball is always an interesting pitch. It's so rare as to be hard to really separate from others. And arm slot/splits it weird with it, too--as you can kind of see with the second post. Maybe.
GM: Bikini Krill
Nothing Matters But the Pacific Pennant
Roster

User avatar
shoeless.db
BBA GM
Posts: 2343
Joined: Wed May 29, 2019 10:25 pm
Has thanked: 1848 times
Been thanked: 1101 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by shoeless.db » Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:22 pm

Variables upon variables, gut instincts and superstitions, philosophies and personalities — Baseball is a game of infinite possibilities spun around countless moments. Only great fools (and the bright-eyed boy within each of us) profess to understand it at all.
Sacramento Mad Popes
-- Vic Caleca Team News Award Winner 2052
-- BBA Champion 2053
— The Heartland Sucks
-- Pacific Champs 2040, 2042, 2043, 2047, 2048, 2049, 2051, 2053, 2054, 2058
Life is a bit more beautiful when time is measured by the half inning rather than the half hour.

User avatar
CTBrewCrew
GB: FL Heartland Division Director
Posts: 5168
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:20 am
Location: Milford, CT
Has thanked: 924 times
Been thanked: 1334 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by CTBrewCrew » Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:22 am

Gonna bookmark this thread... thanks to all!
Image

User avatar
ae37jr
BBA GM
Posts: 3010
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:37 pm
Location: Davenport, FL
Has thanked: 41 times
Been thanked: 664 times

Re: Pitch Types and Effect

Post by ae37jr » Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:54 am

and I thought I was just being random by giving my SP convert a knuckleball.
Alan Ehlers
GM of the Twin Cities River Monster
Image

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “League Chatter”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests