Hold My Log - 51.23 - The Nuclear Options

GM: Chris Wilson

Moderator: 7teen

Who stays? Who Goes?

McBride Stays in Portland
3
10%
McBride Declines Player Option
3
10%
-------------
0
No votes
Smith Stays in Portland
3
10%
Smith Declines Player Option
3
10%
-------------
0
No votes
Zalapa Stays in Portland
1
3%
Zalapa Opts-Out
5
17%
-------------
0
No votes
de' Medici Stays in Portland
1
3%
de' Medici Declines Player Option
5
17%
-------------
0
No votes
Otero Stays in Portland
2
7%
Otero Declines Player Option
4
13%
 
Total votes: 30

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7teen
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Hold My Log - 51.23 - The Nuclear Options

Post by 7teen » Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:10 pm

The Lumberjacks are on the verge of playing in their 2nd Cartright Series in 3 seasons. Just like 2049, few if any pundits predicted Portland to be in this position. It's very likely few will pick Portland to make it next season for sure. Which is the purpose behind this article: What will next year's team even look like? While clearly the focus of the organization is on tonight's Cartright matchup with Yellow Springs, the front office can't ignore the wild scenarios that face this team heading into 2052.

Counting what Portland has coming back next season and all the options on the table, the Lumberjacks are projected to have a salary of just over $108 million entering next season. You can do the math, that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room to improve the roster next season. Sure, you can say the team is in the Cartright, what needs improving? Well, the team is slated to lose 9 players currently on the 27-man roster. So yeah, it could be hard to fill those spots with no cap space.

But here comes the kicker, Portland has 6 players on the roster who have player options or opt-outs for the 2052 season. Those players combined together are to make $65.8 million next season in salaries. So take those players out, and Portland would have all kinds of holes to fill but would have close to $70 million to fill the spots. "That would be kind of fun" commented team GM Chris Wilson earlier this season when asked about the team's salary future. "Be like a kid in a candy shop with a ton of money to spend. We love the guys we have on our roster, but who wouldn't love that amount of money to spend?"

So with that, let's examine the players who have options, what their remaining contracts are, and what we really expect to happen with them in the coming weeks.

ImageErnest McBride
2 Years Left on current deal. Can opt-out after this season. Also has a player option for 2053. Set to make $21 million each of the next 2 seasons.

Expectations: We expect McBride to pick up his option and stay with the team. He's had a great last 3 seasons with the team and is having a post-season to remember right now. He's overpaid by many projections as a DH only. Players do seem to think they are underpaid these days and seek the big FA bucks, but these types of contracts don't appear to be thrown out these days. The 30 year old will be 32 at the end of this deal. With the PO for 2053, McBride could take the $21 million this season and decide if he wants the same deal for 1 more year or try and sign one more long term deal. His value may not be as high as it currently is, but he's getting paid handsomely already.
ImageJeffrey Smith
2 years left on current deal. Has a player option for 2052 and another for 2053. Set to make $15.8 next season (same as this season) and a pay decrease to $14.6 in 2053.

Expectatoins: We think Smith picks up his PO and returns next season. While offensive numbers spiked in 2051 across the league, Smith saw his WAR dip back down to 3.2 this season from 6.2 a year ago. He is 32 years of age, meaning he'd be 34 when this contract runs out, but like McBride, Smith has a PO for 2053 as well so he can re-examine his future again next season. Smith is happy in Portland currently. He could probably get a deal very similar to the one he has now for a longer period but since he has the control in the issue with the POs, we think he'll stay in Portland.


ImageAngel Zalapa
3 years left on current deal. Can opt-out of the deal after the season and make a guaranteed $8 million next year, then has a PO for $6 million in 2053, and a team option $10 million in 2054.

Expectations: We expect Zalapa to opt OUT of his current deal with Portland. The aging 2B/3B has had a re-surgence this past year, posting a 5.5 WAR for the season and has had a hot post-season. His value couldn't be higher than it is right now for a 36 year old future HOF. While $8 million next season isn't a bad pay day and he could stick around for that, he should expect to make more than that in 2052 and forego having the power in 2053 with that PO. He's not taking that PO anyway and has to know the team most likely won't pick up the TO in 2054 for that amount when Zalapa will be pushing 40 years of age. Based on his performance this season, Zalapa has to feel a 2 year deal worth $20 million is a real possibility (even though we know he'll ask for the moon early in free agency)



ImageLorenzo de' Medici
1 year left. $7.5 million player option, a 500K decrease from this year.

Expectations: This one's iffy. de' Medici suffered a mild injury this season for the first time in a very long time. He still put up a 1.5 WAR but for the first time in his career failed to K more batters than his IP. Granted, that was a trend across the league. de' Medici is still likely one of the top relievers in the game. So what does Lorenzo want? Does he think he can get a longer term deal that would take him closer to retirement? The 35 year old doesn't have many years left. Granted he's still very good. Will someone pay him more than Portland is next season at $7.5 million? There are a lot of questions there that Lorenzo and his agent will have to answer in the coming weeks. We genuinely feel this one is a toss-up.


ImageFrancisco Otero
1 year left. $1.5 million player option.

Expectations: Otero is an idiot if he stay in Portland for $1.5 million. Fresh off claiming the Geoghegan Series MVP award, Otero's value will never, and I mean NEVER, be higher. Despite just a 1.0 WAR, the solid fielding SS has to think in his own mind he's worth more than $1.5. Not to mention, he's only making the LEAGUE MINIMUM this season.
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Re: Hold My Log - 51.23 - The Nuclear Options

Post by neugey » Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:28 pm

This was an interesting read, as the Jackrabbits will have a ton of cap space (possibly the most) in the upcoming free agency. It's been tough to get a feel for how much money will be out there vs the quality/quantity of players hitting the market. Very much wait and see.
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