We Got Wood - 40.53 - Recapping the Brewer Trade

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We Got Wood - 40.53 - Recapping the Brewer Trade

Post by 7teen » Tue Dec 03, 2019 10:44 am

I've had this in mind for most of the season. It seems like quite a while ago that the expansion draft took place and the whirlwind of trades and moves took place in Portland. Portland overspent in the draft by several, SEVERAL, millions of dollars and had to make a ton of moves to get back under the cap and form a team. Some of the moves worked. Some didn't. So over the next couple of TNs I'm going to look back at how those moves played out after 1 season and who might have won or lost the trades in the end.

The first trade I want to look back on is the one that involved the first overall pick in the expansion draft: Hank Brewer. Portland had a pre-set deal in place that if the club drafted Brewer, they would trade him to Boise. Rather than miss out on a potential trade, the Lumberjacks took Brewer first overall in the expansion draft. Here is the recap of the trade and how their 2040 season's played out:

To BoisePositionLevelWAR
Hank BrewerCatcherBBA1.3
To PortlandPositionLevelWAR
Jorge Reyes2B/3BBBB/AAA0.3/0.3
Masamichi KuboLFAAA1.7
Faical EngeitadoRP/OFA/AA3.8/0.1
This trade breaks down very interesting for both teams. Boise got a catcher they felt they needed but the season didn't quite go so well for the Spuds in 2040. Portland got some younger pieces but it's unknown whether any of them will really every equate to much. Reyes, who it was determined after the trade is a cancer in the clubhouse, spent time in both Portland and Quincy with little success. The organization did start working Reyes out as a 2B late in the season and may look at moving him there in 2041 as a possible 2B solution for a few seasons in a platoon role. Kubo is going to be a guy who likely spends a lot of time floating around as a 4th or 5th outfielder type on a BBA team or spend a lot of his career as a professional AAA player. Even though he has a 50 potential ranking, he just doesn't quite have enough of "it" to make a consistent big league player.

The interesting piece in the whole trade remains Engeitado. Drafted as a pitcher, the Lumberjacks played him as an OF and a starting pitcher for most of the season in Single-A ball. HIs pitching ratings never really improved much despite posting a 3.97 ERA in over 100 innings pitched in A ball. But he hit .340 with a 1.034 OPS while in Single-A so the team bumped him up to AA late into the season. Engeitado has a bat now that could possibly make it as a platooning OF or DH option. His defense is a little shaky still and the team still has some older vets taking time right now in the OF and DH for 2041. At the age of just 19, Portland will likely let Engeitado to continue working as both a pitcher and hitter in the minors next season in both AA and AAA with a 2042 likely debut season.

Who won the Trade:
I'm going to call this one a push in the end. Boise has a team option on Brewer for 2041 that they might pick up. This trade could still swing one way or the other if Brewer helps the Spuds in 2041 or Reyes plays a serviceable 2B in 2041 or Engeitago turns into a solid big league player down the road. But it would have to take a dramatic swing either way for it to not be looked at as a push several months after this trade was made.
Chris Wilson

LB Surfers 95-96
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Portland Lumberjacks 2040-

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Re: We Got Wood - 40.53 - Recapping the Brewer Trade

Post by HoosierVic » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:14 am

Interesting analysis - I'll need to follow Engeitado. Two-way players are, inherently, interesting. (Chicago has one in the minors - Paul Kemp).

Nice idea for a series, Chris!

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Re: We Got Wood - 40.53 - Recapping the Brewer Trade

Post by jleddy » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:17 am

Nice recap!

If Boise was a playoff team, I'd grade the deal slightly in favor to the Spuds, as Brewer would have been a key piece to get to that point. Right now, he's just providing positive WAR for no real overall team gain. I will be picking up his option, so maybe he does contribute towards something meaningful but I doubt it. In the end, it's hard not to like what Portland did. Any useful players making league minimum (ie Kubo as a 4th OF) and intriguing prospects (ie Engeitado) go a longways for an expansion team.

I think a media guide piece in five seasons looking back at Portland's (and possibly Charlotte's) inaugural expansion draft and the moves that came from it could make an interesting "How To" (or "How Not") roadmap for expansion teams.
"My $#!? doesn't work in the playoffs." - Billy Beane Joe Lederer

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Re: We Got Wood - 40.53 - Recapping the Brewer Trade

Post by 7teen » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:29 am

jleddy wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:17 am
Nice recap!

If Boise was a playoff team, I'd grade the deal slightly in favor to the Spuds, as Brewer would have been a key piece to get to that point. Right now, he's just providing positive WAR for no real overall team gain. I will be picking up his option, so maybe he does contribute towards something meaningful but I doubt it. In the end, it's hard not to like what Portland did. Any useful players making league minimum (ie Kubo as a 4th OF) and intriguing prospects (ie Engeitado) go a longways for an expansion team.

I think a media guide piece in five seasons looking back at Portland's (and possibly Charlotte's) inaugural expansion draft and the moves that came from it could make an interesting "How To" (or "How Not") roadmap for expansion teams.
That would make for an interesting Media Guide piece for sure.

Agreed on the playoff situation. If Boise had made it then I'd have graded it a win for you just because you would have gotten the piece you felt you needed to help in that.

What will be interesting to watch on Portland's end next year here with this trade is: Can Reyes produce positive WAR at 2B (we sucked there this year so I started working him out there as a replacement for 2041), Is there room for Engeitado as a lefty DH (His defense isn't very good and afraid his pitching isn't going to cut it either) and is there roster room for Kubo as that potential OF. Kubo may have gotten some ABs this year but we had too many guys needing spots on the 40-man roster there just wasn't room to play him. Afraid I'll be in a similar situation next year and there are some better guys that may jump him on the depth chart.
Chris Wilson

LB Surfers 95-96
FL Pac Champs: 95

Madison Wolves 99-2039
JL MW Champs: 99 to 2009, 17, 20, 21
JL WC: 12
JL Champs: 01, 04, 09, 12
FL Heartland Champs: 32
FL WC: 31, 33
BBA Champs: 04, 09

Portland Lumberjacks 2040-

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