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UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May (updated to Mid-July)
Posted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:50 pm
by RonCo
I modified my script to get UMEBA data...
Here's UMEBA defense through May in "Plays Above Average"
Code: Select all
BBA PERFORMANCE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE (Through May)
TEAM GB FB LD(IF) LD(OF) TOTAL
BAG 39.4 8.0 0.2 2.2 50.0
MUM 1.3 1.6 0.4 1.3 4.7
IST 2.2 -2.4 0.4 -1.7 -1.5
MAN -13.4 6.3 -0.8 3.3 -4.6
CAI -14.7 9.9 -1.3 -0.3 -6.5
BUC 3.2 -6.2 0.1 -4.3 -7.2
BEI -11.3 -7.9 0.6 2.9 -15.7
JER -6.8 -9.2 0.4 -3.4 -19.1
League 0 0 0 0 0
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:37 am
by HoosierVic
Excellent- thanks, Ron!
Just so I’m clear on what I’m reading here, Baghdad is leading the league in plays above average by rather a breathtaking margin, correct? And that would mean that Baghdad fielders are getting to more balls and making more plays than the rest of us?
Again, thanks for running this - I know it’s extra time and effort for you.
Cheers!
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:10 pm
by RonCo
Yes, that's how to read it.
The script I use goes through all the game logs (which takes time because to get the game logs in html format means I have to manually go through the game and open every game's box score, then game log). Anyway, for each batter/pitcher match-up it captures a whole bunch of information, among which is the zone the ball was hit to, the type of batted ball (FB/GB/LD/PU/Bunt), and the results (single, double, out, error, etc).
The script then goes through every zone and calculates how the league performs in that zone as the baseline--then calculates (1) how your team did in dealing with actual plays you had and (2) how the league average defense would have done given the plays your team had to make. At that point, it calculates the difference between your defense and a "league average" defense...which it then calls PLAYS ABOVE AVERAGE.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:12 pm
by bschr682
Awww yea. Worst defense in the league. First time in my entire OOTP career that thats happened
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:16 pm
by RonCo
I should probably post a compiled results file again sometime. It's a little overwhelming at first, but if you're insane like I am, it's fun to fiddle with on occasion. I can look at silly things like Called/Swinging Strike out rates, and a gazillion other things that might or might not make a difference at all.
The defense stuff, though, I'm pretty confident of. If I could ever get it to individual players, I'd trust it a lot more than OOTP's ZR.
I've done work that can get down into individual players, but to do it you need more information than the game gives you in its game logs (the data is easier to get at in the base .csv files, but only Matt can manage those for us). That said, if I think about it, I might be able to use the box score html files to back-calculate it. That's a lot more coding work than I want to do right now, though.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:16 pm
by RonCo
This is just through May...so sample size could be creating gaps where they don't exist.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:27 pm
by bschr682
Oh it’s not just sample size. My corner outfielders are lets just say a bit defensively challenged hahahaha
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:49 pm
by RonCo
Everything is relative, though.
I love these things because the question of "can a 7" range play in center field is always dependent on what everyone else is rated. If everyone is a 7, then that guy's average. Kinda. And then, assuming everyone else is an "8" or a "9" how good does the guy's bat have to be before the defense is not a problem? There is no pure answer to these questions, so it's great fun to look at.
On the other hand, there is sometimes only a certain level of klutziness a GMs stomach can accept.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:10 pm
by Ted
So Beirut's OF numbers make me wonder about something. How can a team be better at OF lines drives than OF fly balls? I saw a number of BBA teams like this. IS the IF defense so bad at fly balls that it makes up for it? Unlikely. Small sample size? Probably. But again ,I think there were 5-6 BBA teams like this. Still could be that the samples are too small. Just seems odd.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:16 pm
by Ted
For reference, here are the BBA teams like Beirut.
TEAM | GB | FB | LD(IF) | LD(OF) | TOTAL |
OMA | 18.5 | -8.2 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 10.8 |
CCJ | 12.5 | -5.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
WIC | 9.7 | -5.9 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 9.5 |
BRK | 1.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 4.9 | 6.4 |
SEA | 15.4 | -13.3 | -0.3 | 3.8 | 5.6 |
HNT | 5.5 | -3.8 | -0.1 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
ATC | -24.1 | -6.9 | -1.7 | 1.7 | -31.0 |
Lg. Avg. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
All have positive number for OF line drives and negative overall fly ball numbers. Most actually have good ground ball numbers, so the (unlikely) theory that IF fly ball ineptitude is making up the difference is out. Maybe the OF line drives are uncommon enough that the sample is wholly inadequate for an individual team?
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:20 pm
by RonCo
It's better than league average in each category. Not better than themselves. Every team is better defending FB than defending Line Drives by a wide margin. There could be sample size issues, but there could also be distribution differences team to team. One team could get 30 FB to zone 89XD (very deep Right-center, where many fly balls fall for hits), while another only gets 10 hit there.
I need to post the detailed charts again sometime so that folks can see the differences.
Anyway, it's sometimes impossible to separate pitching from defense, and visa versa.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:20 pm
by RonCo
Ted wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:16 pm
For reference, here are the BBA teams like Beirut.
TEAM | GB | FB | LD(IF) | LD(OF) | TOTAL |
OMA | 18.5 | -8.2 | -0.8 | 1.3 | 10.8 |
CCJ | 12.5 | -5.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 10.1 |
WIC | 9.7 | -5.9 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 9.5 |
BRK | 1.6 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 4.9 | 6.4 |
SEA | 15.4 | -13.3 | -0.3 | 3.8 | 5.6 |
HNT | 5.5 | -3.8 | -0.1 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
ATC | -24.1 | -6.9 | -1.7 | 1.7 | -31.0 |
Lg. Avg. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
All have positive number for OF line drives and negative overall fly ball numbers. Most actually have good ground ball numbers, so the (unlikely) theory that IF fly ball ineptitude is making up the difference is out. Maybe the OF line drives are uncommon enough that the sample is wholly inadequate for an individual team?
I don't include infield zones in the OF calculations.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:24 pm
by RonCo
For example, since Huntsville is in the list there, here's Huntsville's performance as of the end of June:
Code: Select all
Huntsville Phantoms Defensive Performance (Fly Balls)
BIZ 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 18 36 28 15 21 24 33 11
MID 10 21 24 16 22 31 22 14
DEEP 19 37 24 19 15 23 30 14
EXTRA-D 0 0 23 15 21 23 0 0
ERRORS 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MID0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DEEP 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
EXTRA-D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EFF 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 0.611 0.833 0.750 0.733 0.810 0.708 0.758 0.545
MID 0.600 1.000 0.792 1.000 1.000 0.903 1.000 0.714
DEEP 0.211 0.459 0.750 0.947 0.933 0.739 0.400 0.143
EXTRA-D 0.217 0.467 0.333 0.217
EFF:LG 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 0.707 0.817 0.725 0.822 0.831 0.709 0.826 0.721
MID 0.791 0.989 0.830 0.993 0.989 0.818 0.997 0.811
DEEP 0.151 0.373 0.781 0.950 0.952 0.819 0.394 0.159
EXTRA-D 0.203 0.482 0.474 0.154
PLAYS 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW -1.73 0.57 0.70 -1.34 -0.45 -0.02 -2.26 -1.94
MID -1.91 0.23 -0.93 0.11 0.23 2.65 0.07 -1.35
DEEP 1.14 3.20 -0.75 -0.05 -0.28 -1.84 0.17 -0.22
EXTRA-D 0.00 0.00 0.34 -0.23 -2.95 1.46 0.00 0.00
-------------------------------------
FLY BALLS IN EXTRA-DEEP ZONES
9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
BIZ 0 0 23 15 21 23 0 0
Out 0 0 5 7 7 5 0 0
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eff 0.217 0.467 0.333 0.217
Lg Eff 0.203 0.482 0.474 0.154
FLY BALLS IN DEEP ZONES
9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
BIZ 19 37 24 19 15 23 30 14
Out 4 17 18 18 14 17 12 2
E 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Eff 0.211 0.459 0.750 0.947 0.933 0.739 0.400 0.143
Lg Eff 0.151 0.373 0.781 0.950 0.952 0.819 0.394 0.159
FLY BALLS IN MID-ZONES
9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
BIZ 10 21 24 16 22 31 22 14
Out 6 21 19 16 22 28 22 10
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eff 0.600 1.000 0.792 1.000 1.000 0.903 1.000 0.714
Lg Eff 0.791 0.989 0.830 0.993 0.989 0.818 0.997 0.811
FLY BALLS IN SHALLOW ZONES
9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
BIZ 18 36 28 15 21 24 33 11
Out 11 30 21 11 17 17 25 6
E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eff 0.611 0.833 0.750 0.733 0.810 0.708 0.758 0.545
Lg Eff 0.707 0.817 0.725 0.822 0.831 0.709 0.826 0.721
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:27 pm
by Ted
I get it now. So I'd be looking for a correlation between fly ball defense being above league average and OF line drive defense being above league average that the sample size for OF lines drives isn't large enough to drive. And our parks are different. And there are probably other reasons one team sees many more types of one fly ball than others that I'm not accounting for.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:31 pm
by RonCo
That's probably the case.
Another idea...a team with OF that had high range, high error ratings, could well do worse than league average in "routine plays" that everyone gets to (like Fly Balls in routine zones) but do better than league average in Line Drives only because that advanced range helps them get to more balls.
I have no idea if that's true because I can't get to individual players here (among other reasons). But it's something that, if true, suggests OF defense is not just about range...which seems reasonable.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:33 pm
by RonCo
This kind of study makes no real differentiation between a hit allowed and an error. It only counts how many balls a team turns into outs.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:35 pm
by RonCo
One of the reasons I occasionally post things like how many balls in play go to each zone (beyond the fact that I'm a numbers junkie on a search for a fix) is that if a GM wants to spend a little time thinking about probability, they can make their own choices on how much risk to take on defense at one position or another.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:36 pm
by RonCo
I would post more detailed UMEBA data here, but all of it is on another hard drive that I don't have access to right now.
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:39 pm
by RonCo
Here's the league-wide distribution of Fly Balls in BBA through June, for example:
Code: Select all
League Defensive Performance (Fly Balls)
BIZ 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 471 964 673 591 597 636 955 456
MID 263 635 702 593 562 658 610 264
DEEP 531 1054 709 581 540 631 1014 504
EXTRA-D 809 587 610 722
ERRORS 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 0 4 2 5 4 2 3 0
MID1 3 2 4 6 6 2 2
DEEP 0 2 0 2 6 2 3 0
EXTRA-D 1 3 5 0
EFF 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 0.707 0.817 0.725 0.822 0.831 0.709 0.826 0.721
MID 0.791 0.989 0.830 0.993 0.989 0.818 0.997 0.811
DEEP 0.151 0.373 0.781 0.950 0.952 0.819 0.394 0.159
EXTRA-D 0.203 0.482 0.474 0.154
EFF:LG 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 0.707 0.817 0.725 0.822 0.831 0.709 0.826 0.721
MID 0.791 0.989 0.830 0.993 0.989 0.818 0.997 0.811
DEEP 0.151 0.373 0.781 0.950 0.952 0.819 0.394 0.159
EXTRA-D 0.203 0.482 0.474 0.154
PLAYS 9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
SHALLOW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MID 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DEEP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EXTRA-D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-------------------------------------
FLY BALLS IN EXTRA-DEEP ZONES
9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
BIZ 809 587 610 722
Out 164 283 289 111
E 1 3 5 0
Eff 0.203 0.482 0.474 0.154
Lg Eff 0.203 0.482 0.474 0.154
FLY BALLS IN DEEP ZONES
9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
BIZ 531 1054 709 581 540 631 1014 504
Out 80 393 554 552 514 517 400 80
E 0 2 0 2 6 2 3 0
Eff 0.151 0.373 0.781 0.950 0.952 0.819 0.394 0.159
Lg Eff 0.151 0.373 0.781 0.950 0.952 0.819 0.394 0.159
FLY BALLS IN MID-ZONES
9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
BIZ 263 635 702 593 562 658 610 264
Out 208 628 583 589 556 538 608 214
E 1 3 2 4 6 6 2 2
Eff 0.791 0.989 0.830 0.993 0.989 0.818 0.997 0.811
Lg Eff 0.791 0.989 0.830 0.993 0.989 0.818 0.997 0.811
FLY BALLS IN SHALLOW ZONES
9L 9 89 8R 8L 78 7 7L
BIZ 471 964 673 591 597 636 955 456
Out 333 788 488 486 496 451 789 329
E 0 4 2 5 4 2 3 0
Eff 0.707 0.817 0.725 0.822 0.831 0.709 0.826 0.721
Lg Eff 0.707 0.817 0.725 0.822 0.831 0.709 0.826 0.721
Re: UMEBA Defense - 2038 Thru May
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:35 pm
by RonCo
Updated through mid-July:
Code: Select all
UMEBA PERFORMANCE BY PLAYS MADE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEAM GB FB LD(IF) LD(OF) TOTAL
BAG 48.1 18.4 0.0 6.1 72.5
BEI -26.6 -6.0 0.9 6.6 -25.1
BUC 11.8 3.9 -1.2 -7.1 7.3
CAI -17.5 7.3 -1.5 -0.5 -12.1
IST 9.9 1.5 1.0 -2.0 10.4
JER -19.6 -24.3 1.2 -5.2 -47.9
MAN -12.1 5.3 -0.3 3.9 -3.1
MUM 6.1 -6.1 -0.1 -1.8 -1.9
0 0 0 0 0