THE Hammer 2048.3: A look back at a blender division

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THE Hammer 2048.3: A look back at a blender division

Post by cheekimonk » Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:39 am

THE Hammer
9 Nov 2047
Jerusalem, Israel
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Everyone is familiar with the division chase chart so let's get a perspective on how the BURT played out this past season:

Image

As always, around half of teams soar at the beginning while the other half bombs. Then the "regression to the mean" begins. But here a a few of our observations:

1) Riyadh is not as bad as they think. Sure, they started really, really, like terribly bad. But notice that a) though it was a bit later than for other teams, Riyadh did get a bump in status and b) that bump mirrored almost exactly Baghdad's climb and while it didn't continue to improve the team also didn't crater...when they could have. More on that later.

2) Beirut was not the boss in the division despite how things wound up. Beirut fell deeper than they should have going into June...too deep for a consistently dominate team to fare. If you look at the end of May, Manama and Jerusalem were trading punches at the top of the division while the Cedars were next-to-last.

3) This chart is textbook for an overall dogfight. I keep saying it, but the division shaped up as one with a lot of talent chasing a one prize (Beirut) while leaving just no room for another team in the fight (Riyadh). Divisions don't typically show as every team staying bunched up with the title gong down to the wire. While Riyadh leveled out to stay the same team they entered as in 2047, Baghdad didn't. If you focus on the Kings' trendline, from late-May to early-July it looks a lot like a division schooling the rest of he class as they walk away into the playoffs.

Ultimately, I could have drawn this division chart before the season started. When everyone gets pulled back to the mean, missing wins and losses aren't focusing on individual teams but the crowded middle. The surplus wins go to a winner while surplus losses to the bottom creating the "umbrella" profile.

What that means for 2048 is hard to tell with free agency just getting kicked off and the fact that GMs will come and go.
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