55.15 Post-Season Analysis of Roster Makeover

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Bob Breum
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55.15 Post-Season Analysis of Roster Makeover

Post by Bob Breum » Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:47 pm

Back in June, Monarchs co-GM Bob Breum joined us to explain his vision for the club, and to address his expectations following the roster changes he had made. We’ve asked him back to discuss the success or lack thereof of his moves.

DH/1B
“We saw this as our best hope for a major improvement. We signed Odemar Lock as our LH DH and Émile Ollier as our RH DH. Jae-hyung Chi was retained at 1B. Chi’s average season has been 3.0 WAR, and he produced exactly that for us this season. Chi’s contract is up, and our conversations with his agent suggest that he wants more money than we can offer him.

“Last season’s DH production was an awful -1.3, so we had nowhere to go but up. This season, we saw the DH position earn 2.7 WAR, an improvement of 4.0 WAR, but it did not come from Lock. He scuffled from the get-go, and never found his stride. We benched him and called up August Helfter to DH against RH pitching. He immediately gave our lineup a major boost, finishing the season with 25 HRs and a 125 OPS+, and earning 1.5 WAR in 89 games. He is still on a rookie contract, and we expect him to play an important role for us next season.


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August Helfter

“Ollier, playing the short side of the platoon in a league in which LH starting pitchers were a rare commodity, met our expectations, posting a 156 OPS+ against left-handed pitching and delivering 1.2 WAR in only 32 starts. We would like to retain Ollier, but given his current contract demands, that may not happen. We remain hopeful.”

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Émile Ollier
CF

“We signed Dave Dempsey to play CF for us this season, looking for an improvement over last season’s 1.6 WAR at the position. I said at the time that we were confident that Dempsey could earn at least 2 and maybe 3 WAR, and that he offered 20/20 potential. Unfortunately, our expectations were not met. He got hurt in early May, missing 5 weeks, and was not the same player that our scouts saw the year before. Generally speaking, in up-the-middle positions like C, 2B, SS, and CF, you are happy with league average hitting if they can deliver strong defense. Dempsey provided neither, posting a 91 OPS+ and a slightly positive ZR of 1.4 over 61 starts. While he was hurt, we had to call up our CF prospect Amin Asim before he was ready, and he struggled against big league pitching, with an OPS+ of 55.

“At the end of June, we reached a deal with Buenos Aires to trade them Odemar Lock, along with 2B Jose Rodriguez and several prospects, getting back CF Joshua Koka and SP Ielemia Faletose and a pair of young pitchers. This worked out well for both clubs, as both Koka and Lock benefitted from the change of scenery, and Faletose provided a big boost to our already strong rotation.


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Joshua Koka

“Koka stepped into the starting CF role and gave us production far exceeding anything we could reasonably expect from Dempsey. He finished with a 154 OPS+ over 70 starts, good for 3.3 WAR, albeit with a slightly negative ZR of -1.0. When Koka came to us, he made it clear that he was only a rental, and that he was determined to explore his value on the free agent market. After three months with our club, he finally agreed to extension talks, and we are delighted to report that Joshua will be back with us next season.

“Our net WAR in CF for the season was 3.3, a big improvement over last season’s 1.6.”



RF

“Last season, RF returned only 1.9 WAR. We signed a platoon of sluggers in hopes of improving on that: LH rookie Mauro Felman, and RH Faical Engeitado. This succeeded well beyond our expectations, with Felman having a breakout season that should earn him Rookie of the Year honors.
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Mauro Felman

“Felman started 124 games for us in RF and hit 41 home runs, which was third in the league. He was good for 2.6 WAR. Engeitado started 29 games, earning 1.7 WAR with an OPS+ of 149. Our DH August Helfter also started 8 games in RF when Felman needed a day off, but we prefer to keep August in the batter’s box and not on the grass. Together the trio put up 4.4 WAR, a huge improvement over the season before.”

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Faical Engeitado
LF

“Our best hitter last season was Tomás Guillén, and we had little hope that we could duplicate his 4.4 WAR this season after he left for free agency. We decided to move Stewart Cannell from 1B to his natural position of LF, and brought in a platoon partner, Koi Nualitea, to handle ABs versus LHP.
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Stewart Cannell

“We were wrong, in the most wonderful way. Cannell had a breakout season, leading our team in hitting just as Guillen had done the year before. But Cannell topped Guillen’s season, hitting .309/.362/.550, with 34 HRs and 37 stolen bases – a dramatic 30/30 season for the ages. He earned 5.7 WAR with an OPS+ of 142. He also posted a solid ZR of +5.7 in LF. He led the league in SB, finished fifth in HR, third in WAR, and was second in ZR in LF. Stewart deserves to receive MVP votes.

“Nualitea was a disappointment and was sent down in June.

“We are incredibly pleased with our outfield going into next season. Felman, Engeitado, Koka, and Cannell are all returning.”


3B

“Last season, Jin-hwan Kim put up 4 WAR, and provided strong defense. We decided to run it back with Kim, and we were rewarded with another excellent season. He essentially duplicated last season’s efforts at the plate, with his 106 OPS+ matching the year before, and he started the same number of games at the hot corner as before, 140. His glovework got even better, and he is the obvious choice for the Gold Glove at 3B this year, with a ZR of +9.4, almost double that of his nearest competitor. He is still on his rookie contract, and we have no plans to change things at 3B.”
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Jin-hwan Kim
SS

“Beginning with shortstop, we will now address three positions that we need to improve for next season. These are perhaps the most difficult ones in which to accomplish that, as there are relatively few players who are both sufficiently skilled defensively and capable of league average or better production at the plate.

“We signed Francisco Otero to be our shortstop this season. He led the league in WAR among shortstops last season with 3.1, and we hoped that he could duplicate that for us. The prior season saw two glove-first shortstops combine for 2.8 WAR.

“Otero failed to meet our expectations. His bat declined from near-league average to only 74 OPS+. While his fielding did improve, it was not enough to make up the difference, and his WAR contribution declined from 3.1 to 1.2. He will not be returning.

“We brought up rookie Manny Muñóz at the end of May to be Otero’s platoon mate, and he performed well, hitting .321/.362/.698 against LH pitching. He started 21 games for us at shortstop, and we expect to see Manny continue in his platoon role next season.


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Manny Muñóz

“One of our top priorities this offseason will be to find a new starting shortstop.”

2B


“This was our biggest struggle this season. We had a revolving door at second base as we attempted to find someone who could both hit and field. We started the season with José Rodríguez at the keystone, and he hit well for us: .270/.311/.464, 15 SB, 106 OPS+. Our coaches worked with him, but eventually his liabilities with the glove just became too much for us to bear. In 60 games started, Jose had a ZR of -5.6, which projects to well over -10 for a full season. That would be bad at any position, but it is completely unacceptable up the middle. We needed to make a change.

“We brought back last season’s second baseman, José Carlos Coronado. He was unable to duplicate his hitting from the previous season, declining from an OPS+ of 86 to 74. His glovework remained stellar, but we needed more at the plate.

“We brought up rookie Naruhiko Okada, a fine defender and a switch hitter who hits better against RHP. Like Asim, he also struggled to hit big league pitching, recording an even worse OPS+ than Coronado. We stuck with him, hoping that he could adjust, but it never happened.

“Alongside shortstop, we’ll be on the hunt for a new second baseman during the offseason.”


C

“We were counting on Antonio Ruiz for another solid season at catcher, but at age 36, his hitting is on the decline. After last season’s 3 WAR, this season Ruiz managed 1.1 WAR in 100 games. We didn’t have a good alternative until we traded for 24-year-old Izz al Din bin Najeeb at the end of April. He came over in the same trade that netted us Jerry Bourque, and both played a major role in righting our ship after a rough April. Bin Najeeb hit .282/.357/.357 for a 95 OPS+, and is a fine defensive catcher, albeit not in the same league as Ruiz when it comes to pitch framing – few are. Even so, our WAR at C declined precipitously, from 3.6 to 1.6. That is unacceptable.

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Izz al Din bin Najeeb

“Ruiz’s contract is up, and we are far apart on another contract. We expect that we will need to sign a new catcher to work in concert with bin Najeeb. It is going to be difficult to find a replacement for Ruiz, but that is our goal.”

Summary


“Last season, we finished first in Runs Allowed, but near last in Runs Scored. This season, we finished second in both categories, which reflects our announced goal to improve our Runs Scored without allowing our Runs Allowed to get significantly worse. Both our rotation and our bullpen were second best. We improved both dramatically over the course of the season, and we expect to be competing to be the best in both categories.

“We led the league in home runs and were third in drawing walks. Our pitching staff led the league in minimizing home runs allowed and was a close second in minimizing walks. This is a core pillar of our team building philosophy. There is no defending walks and home runs, and our goal is to construct a pitching staff that will keep these to a minimum. Our entire rotation is returning, as is all but one member of our bullpen.

“As laid out above, our announced offseason goals are to sign or trade for new starters at C, 1B, 2B, and SS. We need to maintain a high level of defense up the middle without creating black holes in our lineup in the process. We fully recognize how challenging this will be.”
Bob Breum
Co-GM (Position Players)
2057 Johnson League champions
2057 Johnson League GM of the Year

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Re: 55.15 Post-Season Analysis of Roster Makeover

Post by Jwalk100 » Tue Aug 01, 2023 5:51 pm

Good job. Thorough.
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