55.07 London's Surprising Makeover of a Championship Lineup

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Bob Breum
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55.07 London's Surprising Makeover of a Championship Lineup

Post by Bob Breum » Thu Jun 01, 2023 9:27 pm

In an interview today, co-GM Bob Breum discussed the sweeping changes that the new GM duo made to the reigning GBC champion Monarchs. He said, “It was important to both Erik and me to mold the team to fit our team-building philosophy going forward. Over the years, we have developed an approach that has built sustainable championship ball clubs. Are we going to win it all every year? Of course not. But our expectation is that we will field a playoff team year in and year out. Once you reach the playoffs, anything can happen. In the case of the Monarchs, we were very fortunate to have been handed the reins to a championship team. It is our goal to carry that tradition forward for our fans and our players.”

Breum continued, “If you look at last season, our pitching staff was dominant. They carried the ball club, assisted by excellent defense behind them. Unfortunately, our offense performed relatively poorly, with only five positions earning more than 2 WAR, which is considered to be the baseline for a regular player, according to FanGraphs. My offseason goal was to address those positions that underperformed. We want to see at least 2 WAR from every position.”

DH/1B

“Let’s start with DH. This should be the easiest position to fill. To reach 2.0 WAR at DH, it requires a better bat than at other positions, because you are only counting batting WAR, and not fielding WAR. Of course, there are many players who are a liability in the field, and playing in the field negatively impacts their WAR. These guys are frequently available at a discount, because of their defensive limitations.”


“Last season, the Monarchs split their DH plate appearances between two left-hand hitters, Stewart Cannell and Peter Burrell.

“Cannell is a capable corner outfielder who has posted positive zone ratings at each corner. Burrell is best suited to play first base, as his range is generously described as a step and a dive. They combined for a net -1.3 WAR at the DH position.

“Obviously, this is low-hanging fruit if we’re looking to upgrade a position in the batting order. We signed two players to address this, left-handed hitting first baseman Odemar Lock and righty-hitting right fielder Émile Ollier.

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Odemar Lock

Lock’s elite eye at the plate (9) has helped him lead the league in walks for the last two seasons, and he has massive power (10) to punish mistakes.

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Émile Ollier

Ollier has destroyed left-handed pitching throughout his career. Émile has struggled in the field, but we think that he will flourish as a DH in a platoon role and provide us with a dangerous right-handed bat off the bench. He will platoon in the batting order with our existing first baseman, Jae-hyung Chi who hits left-handed. Lock will DH against right-handed pitching, and he will man first base when we face left-handed pitchers.

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Jae-hyung Chi

“Over the last three seasons, Chi has averaged about 3 WAR. Lock has averaged about 4.5 WAR over the last two seasons. Although Ollier’s playing time has been limited, he has consistently hit left-handed pitching at a 150 OPS+ pace and should be able to earn around 1.5 WAR in a platoon role. If Lock stays healthy and they hit roughly to their career averages, we could see 9 WAR from the combined 1B/DH positions, an upgrade of 7-8 WAR over last season.


CF

“Last season, Bill Bowers and Jerry Pearson platooned in center field, combining for 1.6 WAR.
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Dave Dempsey

“Both are fine center fielders, but their offense left much to be desired. We signed Dave Dempsey to patrol center field for us this season, and we think that he will be an upgrade offensively while providing equivalent defense. He has 20/20 potential, with good speed and excellent baserunning instincts. We expect Dempsey to exceed 2 WAR and perhaps approach 3 WAR.


RF

Bart McIntosh posted 1.9 WAR in right field last season.

“Most of that was earned from his elite defense, as McIntosh combines the range of a center fielder with a cannon arm. He led the league in assists with 12, double that of any other right fielder. Before signing Dempsey, we contemplated moving McIntosh to center.
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Mauro Felman

“We signed a pair of platoon mates to take over right field, hoping to improve the offensive output without sacrificing too much defense. Our new right fielders are left-handed hitting Mauro Felman, and right-handed hitting Faical Engeitado. Engeitado’s arm is the equal of McIntosh’s and Felman’s is close. Unfortunately, their range is a bit below average, but both can be counted on to make the play when they get to the ball.
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Faical Engeitado

“Felman crushes right-handed pitching, with plus-plus power, but he struggles against left-handed pitching. Engeitado is much more comfortable hitting left-handed pitching, so they make a good platoon. Our models project them to give us 4 WAR or better in right field.



2B


“Our second baseman last season was José Carlos Coronado, who delivered 1.9 WAR at the keystone. A slick fielder who can play shortstop at a high level, he earned a zone rating of 7.2 at second base last season, which was second in the league.
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José Rodríguez

“This season, we plan to use José Rodríguez at second base. Jose’s fielding is more in the classic second base mold, with decent range and a modest arm, but he can turn the double play as well as anyone in the league. We expect Rodriguez to post at least a league average OPS+, as he has better hit and power tools than Coronado, with a chance to exceed 3 WAR.


SS

“The Monarchs used two Gold Glove caliber shortstops last season, Jim Herrick and Barrett Marshall. Neither player will instill fear into the opposing pitcher. With their elite glovework, they combined for 2.8 WAR, which is certainly respectable. Image
Francisco Otero

"We are excited for our newly signed shortstop, Francisco Otero, who led all shortstops in WAR last season with 3.1. Otero’s glove is only a bit behind those of Herrick and Marshall, but his bat is a big step up against right-handed pitching. Although Otero is a switch hitter, he struggles to hit left-handed pitching well. We intend to keep Marshall around as his platoon partner. We’d like to see 3.5+ WAR at shortstop this season.


C
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António Ruíz
“The bulk of our catching duties will remain with António Ruíz, who led the league last season in Framing Runs, Zone Rating, and Catcher’s ERA, and finished second in batter WAR among catchers. His backup is the newly acquired Butrus bin Issam, who will platoon against left-handed pitching. Bin Issam was brought on board because of his leadership more so than his catching skills and is expected to fill the role of team captain, an area of concern prior to his arrival. We expect little change to our production at the catching position. Image
Butrus bin Issam
3B

“This is the only position which is unchanged. Jin-hwan Kim will continue to field the hot corner. Last season he accrued 4 WAR, and we will be thrilled if he duplicates that production again this season.
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Jin-hwan Kim
LF

“This is the only position where we expect a decline in production. Last year, Tomás Guillén led our hitters in WAR at 4.4. Not only did Guillén hit well, he also accrued a zone rating of almost +6 in left field. Unfortunately, the team was unable to sign him to an extension, and he refused to even consider resigning with us during the offseason. Image
Stewart Cannell

“We’ll be running out a platoon in left this season, featuring left-handed hitting Stewart Cannell and right-handed hitting Koi Nualitea. Cannell was with us last season, and Nualitea is a BBA veteran who was an off-season signing. Both are solid defenders, albeit not in the same league with Guillén. It’s not impossible that we could duplicate Guillén’s production, but it seems unlikely.
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Koi Nualitea

Summary


“It will be interesting to revisit these projections after the season. As you can see, my plan to upgrade production is to trade off some defense for a greater improvement in offense. This will impact run prevention to some degree. We expect that our runs scored will improve by more than our runs allowed grows, resulting in a gain in run differential.

“We have a number of injury-prone players, and this is very much a concern for our management team. Our biggest offseason signing, Odemar Lock, is fragile, which is why we only signed him to a one-year deal. We hope that by assigning him to the DH role most of the time we can help him stay on the field. Barrett Marshall, our backup infielder and platoon shortstop, is also fragile. On our pitching staff, two of our starting pitchers are fragile, as are two of our relievers. Keeping everybody healthy is a major goal for our organization, and we are very fortunate to have one of the game’s great trainers working for us, Nail Abdul-Nasir. He is legendary at preventing arm injuries, and we hope that he can continue to work his magic with our pitching staff.”
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Nail Abdul-Nasir

“We hope to bring another championship to London this season.”
Bob Breum
Co-GM (Position Players)
2057 Johnson League champions
2057 Johnson League GM of the Year

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Re: London's Surprising Makeover of a Championship Lineup

Post by recte44 » Thu Jun 01, 2023 10:21 pm

Thorough analysis!!

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Re: London's Surprising Makeover of a Championship Lineup

Post by Jwalk100 » Thu Jun 01, 2023 11:23 pm

I like the thinking here. Run prevention/production is a balance.
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