Manama musings 2.0

[jjw]

With the UMEBA season in its final month and the Pearls clinging to a 4-game lead over Jerusalem for the wild card and a playoff position in the Burt division, it seems worth reviewing in brief how the Pearls got here and what their performance to date suggests for the club's future.
At the start of the season, the question that needed answering was whether Manama was just another mediocre UMEBA team, fated to finish around .500 (if lucky!) and plainly out of playoff contention or could possibly reach the upper ranks of the league -- say, in the top 25% with respect to W-L pct.-- and compete for the playoffs. At this point, with the 4th best winning percentage in the league (but only barely so) and in a good position in the Burt wild card race, Manama looks like it may well succeed in reaching that goal. Of course, there are over two weeks left to play and lots can happen in that time, especially when the wild card is at stake (forget the Burt title -- Beirut has that locked up, with a 7.5 game lead at present that has not changed much over the past month or so), but unless Manama collapses in that time or Jerusalem catches fire (and note that these teams end the season facing each other in a three game series), the club should remain a contender for the rest of 2048.
How did Manama get to this position? For one, they have not been unusually fortunate: the club's Pythagorean number perfectly matches their actual results (contrast that with Bucharest, who is +7 over their expected/Pyt results, or poor Mumbai who is significantly underperforming at -6 Pyt). True, Manama has done well above average in extra-inning games, at 14-7 (and their 21 extra-inning games tops the league) as well as 1-run contests (27-21), but some good pitching by the bullpen has certainly helped there. The club has also played well at home (46-31, fourth best in the league), but that can be partly attributed to having roster that matches up quite well against the characteristics of the team's ballpark, which decisively favors power hitting -- notably, Manama has a pitching staff that has been pretty good in GB%, although five teams have been slightly better on this (but not a single pitcher on the club's 40-man roster is a fly ball hurler).
The club's hitting has also been fairly good -- the Pearls are tied for second in the league in AVG and are ranked 5th in OBP. They are definitely not a running team, ranking dead last in the league in stolen bases. But then when you play in such a small park and have a team that hits well and gets on base often enough, why run yourself out of scoring opportunities?
When it comes to pitching, Manama has also performed above average. They are ranked third in the league in ERA, second in BABIP, tied for second on opposition OPS. No starting pitcher (or reliever, for that matter) ranks among the league's best, but nearly all have pitched quite decently.
Finally, on defense, Manama has also performed above average, ranking second in the UMEBA in defensive efficiency (to my mind, the key defensive statistic), tied for third in fielding percentage. Manama is only ranked fifth (and thus mediocre) when it comes to both zone rating and range, but the most important thing here is that the club is not poor on defense in any category.
All in all, then, you can say that Manama has gotten to where it now stands by being a well-balanced team -- not the best in anything, but performing better than the league average in several of the categories that matter the most-- and not stinking at anything! (ok, maybe yes with stealing bases, but then that ability is really not so important).
For the future, Manama has a lot of good young players. There seems especially so for pitchers (most of the team's best prospects here are only 22 or 23 years old, but then that is not uncommon for most UMEBA teams -- yet 7 of the 10 Manama pitchers with the most IP are all 23 ... not sure if that is typical for the league). There are also some good young position players, though -- CF Patrick Strolz, RF Taylor Barfoot, SS-3B Socrates Kazantziakis in particular -- and 6 of the team's top 10 hitters with respect to OPS are 24 or younger, with only one, 2B Mike England, over 30 (he's 32). With regard to the league's 'prospect pipeline', Manama has three players ranked in the top 21, which is as many as any other club.
Now if only Manama can hold on for the Burt wild card.........