The Brewster

Here's the place to talk about the career of:

Cisco 'Nightmare' Guerrero
(First Base)

Accomplishments

Active Career	2023-2040 (18 seasons)
Key Stats	.313/.364/.505, 440 HR, 1693 RBI, 127 OPS+, 66.3 WAR
Awards	Puckett Winner, Gillstrom ROY
All-Star	3-Time

Hall of Fame Metrics:

Category	Score	Avg HoF
JAWS	55	53
BLACK INK	12	23
GRAY INK	147	112
HoF STANDARDS	56	53
Hof Monitor	162	128

Hall of Fame Voting History:

Year	Score
2044	69.0%
2043	74.2%
2042	70.6%

# Extremely dangerous hitter for a lot of years, and a stable foundation of some of Montreal's finest seasons. Guerrero is a solid candidate, but an interesting one. Guys who like true peak seasons will like him a little, but would like him more if he had another couple 6s or 7s in the WAR column. Guys who like steady careers will like him, but would like him more if he extended into the mid-30s at 3 and 4 WAR instead of two. Still, the guy won awards, and a scan of all your basic HoF standards say he's something close to a lock.

Interestinger and interestinger, I say. That's why we take the votes, right?

Comparison to Hall of Fame First Basemen:

The metrics show he should be in.

Voted best at his position just once and his Black/Gray Ink numbers scream "Solid for a long time but never great"...love to hear a compelling case since his peak was before my time.

This one's the closest of all of them for me.

I'll vote him in but I'm awfully easy.

I think he made his big push in that 3-4 season peak, which was really solid. I think his fall-off was a little more than you'd like, but wasn't so bad that it kept him from adding value. Going to be an interesting vote.

I feel like his 3023 hits should be mentioned as a key stat....

Earlier I brushed off Guerrero's candidacy due to winning just one Puckett Award at an offense-first position. Still, I want to give each name on the ballot due diligence to make sure I don't overlook (or overstate) anything, especially considering all the recent eligible candidates had their peak prior to my involvement in the Brewster. I decided to do a little deep dive on Guerrero (who's nickname was "Nightmare" and that's gotta count for somethin', right?):

Guerrero's season-by-season WAR vs. 1B Puckett winner during his "peak" of 2024-2035

YEAR	PUCKETT WINNER - WAR	GUERRERO WAR
2024	Jorge Caballero - 5.9	6.1
2025	Fernando Moreno - 5.6	5.4
2026	Elmer Mould - 4.1	3.6
2027	Fernando Moreno - 7.2	3.7
2028	Fernando Moreno - 8.4	4.3
2029	Holden Blackwell - 6.8	7.1
2030	Cisco Guerrero	n/a
2031	Fernando Moreno - 10.3	9.0
2032	Gervasio Ridder - 6.3	3.4
2033	Gervasio Ridder - 6.0	4.0
2034	Tai hoi Wie - 7.4	4.1
2035	Gervasio Ridder - 6.0	5.6

It appears he actually out-WAR'd the Johnson League Puckett winner at 1B two additional times and for the majority of the first half of his career, he took backseat to Hall of Famer Moreno. At the end of his career, he couldn't quite keep pace with Ridder and Wie, who appear to be -- at a very minimum -- members of the Hall of Very Good, if not fully inshrined one day. Tough to knock a guy for being edged out by some incredible names while still leading the way at his position for three years.

For those like me who love comparing BBAers with MLBers, I ran Guerrero's career numbers thru Ron's awesome rusty trusty Similarity Score spreadsheet and his top three comps* (albeit with weaker scores in the 800s) turned out to be a should-really-retire-at-this-point-but-still-a-future Hall of Famer, an inner-circle member of the Hall of Very Good, and a bonafide Hall of Famer (whose best years were at shortstop):

Name	POS	Score	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	WAR
Cisco Guerrero	1B	---	2471	9656	1378	3023	485	23	440	1693	8	738	1321	.313	.364	.505	66.3
Miguel Cabrera	1B	871.3	2264	8456	1388	2676	556	17	465	1635	38	1087	1653	.316	.412	.551	69.6
Fred McGriff	1B	838.9	2460	8757	1349	2490	441	24	493	1550	72	1305	1882	.284	.390	.509	52.6
Ernie Banks	1B	838.1	2528	9421	1305	2583	407	90	512	1636	50	763	1236	.274	.346	.500	67.5

*thru 2018...c'mon Ron, time to update the Lahman database!

So, what does it all mean? Well, personally I think my gut was right and my original assessment of "solid for a long time but never great (for a significant time)" still holds and in the end, not a Hall of Famer in my book but a name that shouldn't be forgotten as his career slowly disappears from the rearview mirror.

Of course fans of Guerrero's candidacy will probably want to see his Similarity Scores against Brewster first basemen:

Player	Score
Gervasio Ridder#	910
Duane Whitley*	871
Fred Mahaffey*	864
Randy Spratt*	850
Juan Escobar*	841
Terry Cochran	833
Gary Barr*	826
Medric Wood	824
Brock Lee	823
Bombo Vadabonceour*	810

Key: # - active, * = Hall of Famer

Anyone holding shares of Ridder as a future Hall of Famer better vote in Guerrero...

Nice overview.

I voted for him.

He's on my maybe list.

I figure it's only fair if I'm gonna retire his jersey (technically OOTP done it automatically but who's paying attention) that I should vote for him.

Another obvious one for a clueless UMEBAr like me.

Bumping to discuss the candidacy of Cisco Guerrero. Voting history and positional comparison available in first post.

He's a yes

3,000 hits. He gets my vote.

Can't believe this is really a debate.

bcslouck wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:59 am

I voted for him.

Still a yes.

bumping to for HOF discussion

bcslouck wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:20 am

bcslouck wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:59 am

I voted for him.

Still a yes.

Still still a a yes yes.