Earlier I brushed off Guerrero's candidacy due to winning just one Puckett Award at an offense-first position. Still, I want to give each name on the ballot due diligence to make sure I don't overlook (or overstate) anything, especially considering all the recent eligible candidates had their peak prior to my involvement in the Brewster. I decided to do a little deep dive on Guerrero (who's nickname was "Nightmare" and that's gotta count for somethin', right?):
Guerrero's season-by-season WAR vs. 1B Puckett winner during his "peak" of 2024-2035
YEAR | PUCKETT WINNER - WAR | GUERRERO WAR |
2024 | Jorge Caballero - 5.9 | 6.1 |
2025 | Fernando Moreno - 5.6 | 5.4 |
2026 | Elmer Mould - 4.1 | 3.6 |
2027 | Fernando Moreno - 7.2 | 3.7 |
2028 | Fernando Moreno - 8.4 | 4.3 |
2029 | Holden Blackwell - 6.8 | 7.1 |
2030 | Cisco Guerrero | n/a |
2031 | Fernando Moreno - 10.3 | 9.0 |
2032 | Gervasio Ridder - 6.3 | 3.4 |
2033 | Gervasio Ridder - 6.0 | 4.0 |
2034 | Tai hoi Wie - 7.4 | 4.1 |
2035 | Gervasio Ridder - 6.0 | 5.6 |
It appears he actually out-WAR'd the Johnson League Puckett winner at 1B two additional times and for the majority of the first half of his career, he took backseat to Hall of Famer Moreno. At the end of his career, he couldn't quite keep pace with Ridder and Wie, who appear to be -- at a very minimum -- members of the Hall of Very Good, if not fully inshrined one day. Tough to knock a guy for being edged out by some incredible names while still leading the way at his position for three years.
For those like me who love comparing BBAers with MLBers, I ran Guerrero's career numbers thru Ron's awesome rusty trusty
Similarity Score spreadsheet and his top three comps* (albeit with weaker scores in the 800s) turned out to be a should-really-retire-at-this-point-but-still-a-future Hall of Famer, an inner-circle member of the Hall of Very Good, and a bonafide Hall of Famer (whose best years were at shortstop):
Name | POS | Score | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | WAR |
Cisco Guerrero | 1B | --- | 2471 | 9656 | 1378 | 3023 | 485 | 23 | 440 | 1693 | 8 | 738 | 1321 | .313 | .364 | .505 | 66.3 |
Miguel Cabrera | 1B | 871.3 | 2264 | 8456 | 1388 | 2676 | 556 | 17 | 465 | 1635 | 38 | 1087 | 1653 | .316 | .412 | .551 | 69.6 |
Fred McGriff | 1B | 838.9 | 2460 | 8757 | 1349 | 2490 | 441 | 24 | 493 | 1550 | 72 | 1305 | 1882 | .284 | .390 | .509 | 52.6 |
Ernie Banks | 1B | 838.1 | 2528 | 9421 | 1305 | 2583 | 407 | 90 | 512 | 1636 | 50 | 763 | 1236 | .274 | .346 | .500 | 67.5 |
*thru 2018...c'mon Ron, time to update the Lahman database!
So, what does it all mean? Well, personally I think my gut was right and my original assessment of "solid for a long time but never great (for a significant time)" still holds and in the end, not a Hall of Famer in my book but a name that shouldn't be forgotten as his career slowly disappears from the rearview mirror.