Hall of Fame Candidate Thread: Tony Franco

[RonCo]

Here's the place to talk about the career of:


Tony Franco

Third Base

Active Career: 2019-2037 (19 seasons)
2,621 Hits, 409 HR, 1,299 RBI, .263/.291/.438, 50.7 WAR WAR
Landis Memorial Winner: 2021
3-Time Puckett Award Winner
8-TIme Zimmer Diamond Glove Winner
2-Time All-Star


Hall of Fame Metrics: (average HoF)
JAWS: 43.2 (59)
Black Ink: 0 (22)
Gray Ink: 34 (109)
HOF Standards: 40 (53)
HOF Monitor: 42 (125)
# Tony Franco was a one-team player, spending his whole career north of the border in Calgary. A fan favorite and a really solid player. Feels a lot like Diego Moreno if Moreno had a little more power, a Landis award, and two more Zimmers. That said, Moreno's JAWS/Standards numbers are stronger. I'm interested in the culture of this one, too. Franco was the face of an organization, whereas Moreno as a bit of a vagabond. Will that make a difference? It might. Bottom line is that Franco may well have been the best defensive third baseman to ever play the game, and his bat was good enough to collect three Pucketts. Hard to say that's not Hall-worthy, isn't it?


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[Ted]

Hall of very good. Sorry Kevin.

[usnspecialist]

I'm going to have to think long and hard about this one.

[bcslouck]

Had some good years but I'd say one great one. Though I think 5 years ago, he had a shot. No for me.

[RonCo]

I've been voting for Moreno mostly on the basis of his glove at 3B (an under-represented trait). I'll probably move my Moreno vote to Franco, though. I can see taking a pass on him, but 8 Zimmers says something to me, and then you add a bunch of counting numbers that add up to make him close offensively.

[indiansfan]

So in the history of the league nobody has won more Zimmer Awards than Franco at 3B. Everyone talks about how important fielding is, well here is the greatest of all time, 7 Zimmers. The only player at any position to win more in the history of the league is Steve Collins. So only 1 guy has ever one more awards for fielding than Franco, at any position. Let that sink in. He has won Silver Slugger Awards at both SS and 3B, was an All Star at 2B and 3B. So we are talking the greatest glove at his position, plus versatile.

3B All Time Hits Leaders

#1 Charles Puckett (split time between 2B/3B) 3897
#2 Rogelio Morales 3476
#3 Benjamin Caldwell 2921
#4 Tony Franco 2621
Jake Urban 2536
Trey Williams 2535
Dwayne Johnson 2528
Henry Jones 2480
Hunter Eisenhower 2450

What does everyone on that list have in common? They are all in the HOF and have fewer Zimmers than Franco

3B All Time HR Leaders

#1 Charles Puckett 695
#2 Henry Jones 616
#3 Rogelio Morales 604
#4 Dwayne Johnson 498
#5 Jake Urban 490
#6 Donnie Rotten 475
#7 Mark Dempsey 434
#8 Tony Franco 409
#9 Hunter Eisenhower 402

So all except Dempsey and Franco are in the HOF. So based on other 3B he clearly belongs in the HOF. Last year Eisenhower was a first ballot inductee. Franco had more hits, more homers and … more Zimmers. Eisenhower had the better bat in his prime, but Franco clearly had the glove and his career totals are higher.

He belongs in the Hall.

[RonCo]

Insert mic drop here.

[Ted]

So this is the big negative that stands out for me. .263/.291/.438

That's awful. I get that 3B is not the strongest hitting position. And as shown by his hit and homer totals, he was solid to good with the bat when he made contact, and he didn't strike out a ton. Although at .263 his average is nothing amazing. It's actually pretty mediocre for an HOF candidate, and demonstrates that his hit totals were more of a measure of longevity than amazing production. Still, longevity in and of itself is a big HOF factor, so he gets point for that.

Still, .291 is a really bad OBP for someone in HOF contention. Getting on base, if you're going to pick a stat to do well at, is the most important thing for a batter. Franco's WAR is on the low side for a candidate, and it's the OBP that does it. The OBP is why he is a below average hitter for his career.

Do I want to pick one stat (that sabotaged a lot of other stats) and use that single wart to keep an otherwise exceptional player out of the hall? Usually my answer to this is no. But in the case of OBP, which factors in so many parts of hitting and offense production, and is something that Franco was decidedly bad at, it's really tough to overlook.

If elected, Franco's .291 would be the lowest mark in the HOF by 10 points. Joe Belinda is at .301, and frankly, he doesn't look like he belongs. He has 500 homers, but pales in comparison to any of the other 1B in the hall. I wasn't around then, so maybe during his time his numbers would look better.

Outside of Belinda, Franco's .291 OBP would trailthe next lowest by 30 points, and the 4th lowest by 40. The average HOFer appears to be around .350-.360. The average 3B is around .340.

The average 3B in the HOF has an OPS around .850. The worst ones are all over .800. Fraco is at .729. If elected, Franco would easily be the wort hitting third baseman in the hall. He would also be one of the worst hitting players, period. Maybe a couple shortstops are worse.

I'm not trying to shit all over your player, Kevin. Franco had a terrific career, and 400 homers at 3B is a real feat. He was also one of the best ever with the glove at the position, and played a key role for a single team for aa long time. Those are all big things, but he was a bad hitter. I don't know if I want to put decidedly subpar hitters in the hall of fame.

[Ted]

Insert mic drop here.

Maybe. I probably just pissed Kevin off with my reply. Since you commented about moving your vote from Moreno to Franco, I'd like to point out Moreno played 400 fewer games, and only trails by 120 hits or so. Has 20 more WAR, and has a wRC+ that beats Franco by 22 points. Moreno's aggregate ZR at third beats Franco by 70 or so points as well, although I'm not really sure who was more efficient, as they differ in games played. Moreno also played more games during a less offensively oriented era, although Franco has some time during that period as well.

[indiansfan]

One of the reasons that I am not a fan of WAR is that it puts such a premium in OBA. While it is important, I think OBA isn’t as important as other stats. I know many will disagree with me, but for my middle of the lineup guys I value other stats more.

I will not disagree with you that Franco’s longevity is his strength rather than peak years. I think that is one of the things that makes a guy a HOF player. I don’t vote for the guys that had 10 year careers with 2-3 great seasons. To me that isn’t o hall of fame career.

What you seem to devalue is his defense. I think it is strange to devalue this in a league where owners will play Mendoza line guys because they are a 10 with a glove. Franco ranks offensively with all the other HOF 3B (there are other ones I left out that rank much lower) and he was the best fielder at his position ever. If the Zimmerman award has no value then why do we have it.

Not to whine about Terry Cochran again, but several guys said the knock on him was he was a DH. Now the guy has a great glove and it doesn’t matter?

[indiansfan]

Insert mic drop here.

Maybe. I probably just pissed Kevin off with my reply. Since you commented about moving your vote from Moreno to Franco, I'd like to point out Moreno played 400 fewer games, and only trails by 120 hits or so. Has 20 more WAR, and has a wRC+ that beats Franco by 22 points. Moreno's aggregate ZR at third beats Franco by 70 or so points as well, although I'm not really sure who was more efficient, as they differ in games played. Moreno also played more games during a less offensively oriented era, although Franco has some time during that period as well.

And Franco hit 140 more homers and drove in more runs. I can’t see Moreno over Franco. However, maybe they both belong in the Hall?

Also remember that Franco played nearly half his career at 2B and SS. No Zimmers at those positions but go ahead and compare his bat with the guys at SS. Yes Moreno has more ZR at 3B. He played his whole career there. Franco played over 1400 games at other positions.

[Ted]

One of the reasons that I am not a fan of WAR is that it puts such a premium in OBA. While it is important, I think OBA isn’t as important as other stats. I know many will disagree with me, but for my middle of the lineup guys I value other stats more.

I will not disagree with you that Franco’s longevity is his strength rather than peak years. I think that is one of the things that makes a guy a HOF player. I don’t vote for the guys that had 10 year careers with 2-3 great seasons. To me that isn’t o hall of fame career.

What you seem to devalue is his defense. I think it is strange to devalue this in a league where owners will play Mendoza line guys because they are a 10 with a glove. Franco ranks offensively with all the other HOF 3B (there are other ones I left out that rank much lower) and he was the best fielder at his position ever. If the Zimmerman award has no value then why do we have it.

Not to whine about Terry Cochran again, but several guys said the knock on him was he was a DH. Now the guy has a great glove and it doesn’t matter?

I don't think I''m devaluing Franco's defense. I think his defense was amazing. Especially that he stayed good for so long. Where I disagree with you is your statement that he ranks offensively with other 3B in the hall. His offensive counting stats are the product of a long career more than they are of being a good hitter. He objectively was not a good hitter. He was a bit weak for third, and solid for 2B and short. He played a long time, and hit doubles and homers at the expense of being someone who got on base.

In my mind, Franco is well below the standard of a hall of fame player offensively. There are different ways to interpret offensive output, I agree. There are also places in lineup construction sacrificing a little OBP for power is probably okay. But there is so much going against Franco. Even if you go with old stats, a .263 average is not hall of fame caliber, unless you hit a boatload of homers. Like 500-600.

As far as OBP, .291 is bad. It just is. Even if you don't value OBP much. As far as power, his career iso was only .175. Quite good for a middle infielder, but not all time great or anything. In all, he was a mediocre contact hitter, a poor walker, and a good power hitter. So if we consider Franco's offense to be good, what we are saying is either that you do not have to be a complete hitter to be good, or that being below average for a really long time so that you rack up counting numbers counts as good.

You know who has the same rate based stats (or possibly better) than Franco? Cris Vazquz. His .250/.291/.475 line is similar to Franco's, with fewer singles and more homers essentially. Vazquez has nearly 40 more homers in 700 fewer games, albeit 60 fewer doubles. Before you say I'm comparing a DH to a 3B/2B/SS, my point is not that Vazquez should be considered for the hall of fame, or that he's a better player than Franco. I'm only talking about the hitting parts of their game. No one would call Vazquez a great hitter. They are right not to. Similarly, Franco was not a great hitter. He was fine for an elite defensive player, even better than fine for his glove. But offense was not a strength of his in my mind. He just played forever and racked up counting stats.

[Ted]

As far as the Cochran thing, the knock on him for me was not that he was a DH. It's that FOR a DH, he wasn't a good enough hitter. I got the feeling that's what everyone else thought too. Had he been a bit better in his later years, or been a bit better at his peak, he'd be in. He just missed on both accounts. Six of Cochran's sixteen years, he was a very average to just above average hitter(11,12,13,20,22,23). That's not good enough for a DH. That's below average for a DH. Four more years(14,16,18,21), he was a typical DH, no better than many other DH's in the league. That's 10 of his 16 seasons that he was not a great player in any way. That's not good enough for the hall of fame.

Now, if you don't like that I used things like OPS+ or wRC+ (which i like because they are adjusted for park and are relative to league output), we can do the same critique with old school stats. Cochran had 100 RBI 9 times. He hit 40 homers only 3 times. He only hit 30 or more homers in half of the season he played. He batted .300 four times. None of those totals are anything special. They are good. But not special.

Cochran is 41st in games played. Long careers do make you take some note. But they also mean the counting numbers should be HIGHER than you'd expect of a player with a shorter career. Maybe not proportionally, but still higher. Running out there for 3-4 season and providing replacement level value and while tacking on an extra 150-250 hits and 20-40 homers does absolutely nothing in my mind to improve HOF candidacy. I get that this could be open to debate, but that's where I stand on the lengthy career thing. Those extra years only count if you're at least a decent starter during them, and preferably are still above average.

[Ted]

Anyway, I'm starting to feel like a mean jerk. I just love a good hall of fame debate or really any debate about what matters in baseball. Of course I think I'm right, but I know that I'm often wrong, too. I'm just opinionated about the things I believe.

[Ted]

Okay, I really can't help myself. As far as the OBP not being as important of a thing. At least in OOTP, that's just wrong. Go to statPlus team batting. Sort the teams 2037 by OBP. There is a huge correlation to runs scored. Sort by iso power, which we established was Franco's only above average offensive skill. The correlation is not nearly as strong. It's there, but not very strongly. When sorting by OBP, most of the top 50% of offenses are in the top half, and the bottom 50% in the bottom half. The exceptions are Phoenix and Valencia, who were still middle third in OBP, and had incredible team iso power which made them top half offenses.

Sort by ISO, and the trend is just not as strong at all and in fact nearly vanishes. There are eight teams that scored 800+ runs in the bottom fifteen sorted by iso power. That's HALF of the teams that scored 800+ runs, including the 3rd, 6th, and 9th best offensive teams.

I get, Kevin, that you are somewhat talking about leveraging more power in the middle of the order, but the correlations are so different, that I think it demonstrates that absolutely punting on base ability at any point in the lineup is not good.


Also, you can do this with any year. It remains the same.

[indiansfan]

So are you saying you’re a no on Franco?

[Ted]

So are you saying you’re a no on Franco?

LOL. Kevin, this has been fun for me. And I really do feel like I'm piling on. The entire point of a Hall of Fame is to vote for what YOU think is a great player. You and I clearly have differing opinions there. That's great. Otherwise it would be boring. I'm definitely heavily biased towards stats/analytics/etc. I think you are more of a traditionalist, and team value/story driven. Baseball in many ways is more about stories and legacy anyway. If it were all just numbers, it would be boring. Thank you for being such a good sport and tolerating my know-it-all-ness. Thanks for debating with me as well.

[indiansfan]

Hey, I didn't take offense. You are right I am more of a traditionalist. We just have a different view on HOFers and people can disagree without being dicks about it. So good discussion. At least now when Franco isn't voted in unanimously I will know the guilty party.

[usnspecialist]

it amuses me greatly that tony franco has 8 more hits and is 1 spot ahead of terry Cochran on the all time list.

[7teen]

Very tough one here. Both of you make pretty good arguments both ways.

I think I voted for Cochran a few times on the ballot. Really tough call on these guys that do certain things really well but other things not so well.