Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

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Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by RonCo » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:47 pm

. **** VETERAN'S COMMITTEE CANDIDATE *****

Here's the place to talk about the career of: Corey Aubrey

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Pitcher

Active Career: 1974-1988 (15 seasons)
174-106, 29 saves, 2.94 ERA, 2,666 K, 78.3WAR
Landis Winner: 1977
Owner's Choice Award (Nebraska): 1977, 1979
All-Star: 1977


Hall of Fame Metrics: (average HoF)
JAWS: 59.4 (72)
Black Ink: 0 (34)
Gray Ink: 0 (162)
HOF Standards: 46 (49)
HOF Monitor: 72 (125)

---

Aubrey "broke in" at age 23, and proceeded to be nearly unhittable, as his career 2.97 ERA might suggest. He won 20 games twice in his career, both thimes for what is now the franchise in Mexico Cty. Posted a 2.17 ERA in his Nebraska season. Posted the same number two years later and got another. Very close on the standards scale, though the black and gray inks tests don't seem to be wrorking for the pre-95 vets, but he led the leaguer in ERA twice, and was on several other top-ten leaderboards.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by Ted » Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:55 pm

Holy crap how is that guy not in? He just never allowed any homers. Career sub 3 era? Good lord.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by Ted » Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:57 pm

I'm just flabbergasted. SIX 7+ WAR years. Three more 6+ ones. I reiterate, He started almost 400 games with a SUB 3 ERA!.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by usnspecialist » Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:08 pm

wow
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by bcslouck » Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:33 pm

Certainly seems like he should be in.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by scottsdale_joe » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:11 am

:plus1:
Get him a plaque
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by 7teen » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:44 pm

There are about 8 retired guys ahead of him in career WAR who are also not in the HOF.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:01 am

Odd. Only 174 wins doesnt sound impressive. Stats look amazing, and has longevity. Only one all star game isnt impressive, and not typical for a HOFer.

I gotta think about this one...

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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:05 am

Aubrey's win count is so low because we played on a lot of pretty bad teams. I like the Win stat as a good shorthand, but you do have to temper it a little.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by JimBob2232 » Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:27 pm

RonCo wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:05 am
Aubrey's win count is so low because we played on a lot of pretty bad teams. I like the Win stat as a good shorthand, but you do have to temper it a little.

aubrey.PNG
I concur. What about the lack of all star games though. On a terrible team, shouldnt he have been the "go-to" rep?

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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:36 pm

Could be. That's a good argument for the inclusion of All-Star games as an element of the conversation. The question I'd have there is how good is the data. It's probably right, but I don't know. He's not a slam dunk, but I probably vote him in. Debating, I guess.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by Ted » Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:55 pm

I would argue that winning percentage is a better tool than total wins if you've already established that the player had a "long enough" career. Good pitchers on bad teams as Ron just showed can fail to pile up big gaudy win totals. They also tend to get losses they probably wouldn't have on better teams. But overall, if they are still getting far more wins than losses, it's pretty impressive. 170 some odd wins against 100 odd losses is pretty damn good.

In all reality, I find wins, losses, winning percentage, etc near irrelevant when considering a Hall of Fame pitcher. If he's great, as judged by the much more reliable data we have on how well thy got batters out, how well they prevented runs, the wins pile up over the years. They are neat to look at, but if you already know you're talking about a great player, they don't tell you much other than how good the teams the guy played on were.

Which of these pitchers was better?

150-100 3000 innings
170- 90 3000 innings

How about with this data?

150-100 3000 innings, 2.5 era
170-90 3000 innings, 3 era

Immediately, just by knowing a very simple and noisy "old fashioned" stat like era, the win-loss records become tertiary at best, and irrelevant at worse in knowing which player was better at his job, getting outs and preventing runs. When you start adding in things like strikeout totals, HR allowed rates, walks, modern metric that attempt to adjust for team and park effects, I just don't care about win totals, other than to enjoy how cool the big numbers are.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by RonCo » Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:02 pm

I used to ignore big counting numbers, but I've grown a view of them as indicators of value. Kind of like opening arguments. Low counting numbers and I'm arguing why I should include a guy...high counting numbers and I'm arguing why I should discount him. The point there is that you don't find too many horrible pitchers with 200 wins, for example. But you do find good pitchers with 170 wins.

On the whole, I agree with Ted that the best votes take into account a full perspective. I mean, a guy that throws his entire career in Vancouver's park had BETTER have a better than league average ERA, right? And even FIP (because while I know FIP- is adjusted for league, I don't trust it's right). A park that depresses HR depresses FIP. And era...Mons Raider's numbers are going to be huge, but we're in a mega-steal zone. Barring injury, he's going to belong in the Hall based on those numbers and his aura around here--especially if he wins a Landis or two. But how would those SB compare if he was running in Zebediah Williams' time? Dunno.

Every counting number has to be looked at for other stuff. But at least a set of big ones says there's something to look at.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by RonCo » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:29 pm

Bottom line here...it's really hard to judge Aubrey. His numbers are eye-popping in ways, but guys from that early era were playing a different game. In a way, the question for the established GMs is whether you look at the voting decisions made back than as justified or not. I mean, Aubrey looks great to us. But Voo Fowler's FIP would make me drool. [url-http://montybrewster.net/BBA/HTML/news/ ... r_822.html]Lorenzo Diaz[/url], too. And Diaz played longer.

Yet, Aubrey has a couple "Nebraskas," too.

The more I look at it, the more I'm going to be interested to see how this one plays.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by 7teen » Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:41 am

Maybe I'm more strict on my voting, but I think it's a no on Aubrey as well.

I see Jessie Wright with Aubrey but with better ERA and WHIP. But I also think the time period Aubrey pitched was a pitching heavy ERA which would make those numbers less impressive.
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Re: Hall of Fame Candidate Tread: Corey Aubrey

Post by RonCo » Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:27 pm

The decision on Aubrey is killing me. After the conversation on the podcast, I've gone back and tried to do comps and it's like he's literally right at the line of in vs. not in. Almost no matter how I juggle numbers, half his best comparables are in and half are not. Hmmm...guess it's time to get out the coin.
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