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by Ted
Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: League Features
Topic: The Most Common Way Teams Lose Value, Diatribe from a Retired Arrogant Jerk
Replies: 15
Views: 179

Re: The Most Common Way Teams Lose Value, Diatribe from a Retired Arrogant Jerk

Fair enough. The study I undertook does strongly suggest that whatever development level a player is at while in the majors can influence the development engine (which is why I posted it). I'm fine if you want to argue that the influence on players you're talking about is low. But I'll disagree if ...
by Ted
Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: League Features
Topic: The Most Common Way Teams Lose Value, Diatribe from a Retired Arrogant Jerk
Replies: 15
Views: 179

Re: The Most Common Way Teams Lose Value, Diatribe from a Retired Arrogant Jerk

Ron, I mean, this has so little to do with the point I made about nearly developed players that I don't see why you posted it here. You actually picked the cases that are totally missmatched groups of players. I specifically talk about very high potential players who are nearly developed. And point ...
by Ted
Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: League Features
Topic: The Most Common Way Teams Lose Value, Diatribe from a Retired Arrogant Jerk
Replies: 15
Views: 179

Re: The Most Common Way Teams Lose Value, Diatribe from a Retired Arrogant Jerk

Nice read Ted. As someone who is about to start from scratch with a whole new roster and a set of challenges ahead of me I'm excited for a fresh start. Though I kept waiting for the next reason of losing value being: 4. Getting attached to players and overpaying them when you're better off letting ...
by Ted
Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: League Features
Topic: The Most Common Way Teams Lose Value, Diatribe from a Retired Arrogant Jerk
Replies: 15
Views: 179

The Most Common Way Teams Lose Value, Diatribe from a Retired Arrogant Jerk

So, before I left, I was writing a series about how I run my teams. There are definitely other ways. And specifically my way requires (at least as I see it) to adhere to an entire set of principles or it falls apart rapidly. I do think this is true of most models. You have to be be very careful abou...
by Ted
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:44 pm
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: When to leave a baseball game...
Replies: 9
Views: 146

Re: When to leave a baseball game...

My rule of thumb is typically never leave a game early. But I have. Worst was last year. I took my kids to a game in Cincinnati and it went extra innings. We had tickets to the Dave Matthews Band show later that night and we needed to shower and eat before the show. We left in about the 12th inning...
by Ted
Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:46 pm
Forum: League Features
Topic: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
Replies: 58
Views: 521

Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

The Hall of Unique. This needs to become a thing in the BBA. Rhodes Emile Santos (87 doubles in a season, 9 straight seasons over 50 doubles, nearly as many career 2B+3B as singles) Luke Zalusky (1900 games played, never once hit more HR than 3B, 7 seasons over 20 3B) Mons Raider (1000+ SB, <200 CS...
by Ted
Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: Are Linear Weights Outdated?
Replies: 2
Views: 49

Re: Are Linear Weights Outdated?

Also, if I missed any writing about this, please point me in the right direction. I don't presume to think I know more than Tom Tango et al, but I've just wondered about this more and more recently (as I've seen some odd managerial and front office decisions on playing time).
by Ted
Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: Are Linear Weights Outdated?
Replies: 2
Views: 49

Are Linear Weights Outdated?

Okay, so I'm not the greatest quant, but here's my understanding. Linear weights assign an average value of an event to that outcome, assuming a predictable distribution of those outcomes that fall within a typical range. Umm. Let's try again. Linear weights say a single is worth "X". But we know th...
by Ted
Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: League Features
Topic: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?
Replies: 58
Views: 521

Re: Is Dusty Rhodes Overrated?

Sorry to resurrect this, but I'm just reading it now. Such a weird player. I was wondering if he's actually possible in real baseball. Like, could a player consistently hit for such a high average with such poor quality of contact and no speed? I think the answer is no. Aaron mentioned him first, bu...
by Ted
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: Trade Deadline "Procrastination" and "Information Gathering"
Replies: 7
Views: 86

Re: Trade Deadline "Procrastination" and "Information Gathering"

Those are both solid takes. And I thought about my "dipshit" comment above regarding the Giants GM. I still think the Giants should have sold, but I suppose there's the issue of selling that to the fans. I'm not sure how long it would take the average fan to get over moving a player like Bumgarner a...
by Ted
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: Trade Deadline "Procrastination" and "Information Gathering"
Replies: 7
Views: 86

Re: Trade Deadline "Procrastination" and "Information Gathering"

I guess the idea that's driving all this is that teams should know what they have. If you're waiting for players to play games to figure out what your team is (or what your players are), other people are way ahead of you and are making moves to improve while you're still figuring it out. (the pseudo...
by Ted
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: Trade Deadline "Procrastination" and "Information Gathering"
Replies: 7
Views: 86

Trade Deadline "Procrastination" and "Information Gathering"

So, I've been catching up on effectively wild episodes, and I'm in the pre deadline stuff. There are multiple mentions there, and elsewhere, about how deadlines naturally cause procrastination right up until the deadline, and such. The other point commonly made is that of course GMs want to wait as ...
by Ted
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:59 pm
Forum: League Chatter
Topic: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management
Replies: 21
Views: 249

Re: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management

Ted???? I've been lurking around. Tend to read more stuff like this. Ignoring the team news. Keeping an eye on prospects, development here and there. Stil no interest in playing. Let me know when the contract demands stop varying by 40-50 percent on a whim and I'll get back to you. Also, I'm sad yo...
by Ted
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: League Chatter
Topic: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management
Replies: 21
Views: 249

Re: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management

Ted???? I've been lurking around. Tend to read more stuff like this. Ignoring the team news. Keeping an eye on prospects, development here and there. Stil no interest in playing. Let me know when the contract demands stop varying by 40-50 percent on a whim and I'll get back to you. Also, I'm sad yo...
by Ted
Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: League Chatter
Topic: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management
Replies: 21
Views: 249

Re: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management

Whether a guy bases his system allocation on age/ratings/stats, I think there are some fundamental values to following -some- system. I think it's no great surprise that some GMs almost always build great farm systems and some don't. That's partially player acquisition, but it's also level and play...
by Ted
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: League Chatter
Topic: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management
Replies: 21
Views: 249

Re: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management

Another note is that the OOTP devs don't know any more about what is the best minors management strategy than any MLB team (not named the Dodgers, Yankess or Astros), which is to say, not much. In addition, they have to use mathematical models to make players develop. Since there is no publicly avai...
by Ted
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: League Chatter
Topic: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management
Replies: 21
Views: 249

Re: From the OOTP Forums: Unofficial Guide to Minor League Management

I think this is a decent guide maybe if you have no idea what you are doing with minors, but frankly a lot of the detail stuff is just opinion. The stuff about demotions is a good example. The other thing is that he is far too age driven/stats driven. I've gone by ratings more than stats in the mino...
by Ted
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: $1100 Roster Game
Replies: 42
Views: 555

Re: $1100 Roster Game

Mets |Pos|Name|Cost|Value| |--|--|--|--|--| P| Nolan Ryan|$105|81.2| P| Warren Spahn|$20|99.7| P| Bob Friend| $22|40.8| P| Pedro Martinez| $79|83.9| P| Frank Tanana| $29|57.1| P| Mickey Lolich| $31|48.0| P| John Candelaria| $4|41.9| Cost- $270 WAR-452.6 |Pos|Name|Cost|Value| |--|--|--|--|--| C|Yogi...
by Ted
Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: $1100 Roster Game
Replies: 42
Views: 555

Re: $1100 Roster Game

Someone should take the Braves. There's a pretty exiting player for super cheap. You might have to dig a little. Big Ed Walsh? If not him, then you're surely talking about Matt Tuiasosopo's -0.3 WAR for just $3... Other deals I thought of last night and looked up today to confirm would be Piazza's ...
by Ted
Fri Aug 09, 2019 12:07 pm
Forum: MLB Talk
Topic: $1100 Roster Game
Replies: 42
Views: 555

Re: $1100 Roster Game

Someone should take the Braves. There's a pretty exiting player for super cheap. You might have to dig a little.

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