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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:44 pm 
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RonCo wrote:
Here is a 10 year old thread on the OOTP public forums that has several posts from me that get deeper into ratings, Log5s, and league totals.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/s ... p?t=169727


Holy shit, what a can of worms I've opened up reading that thread. It looks like I need to rethink everything I thought I knew about about evaluating a hitter.

How about pitchers then.

How would you explain how Tavio has pitched so well the last two seasons? What am I missing with him?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:20 pm 
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Spiccoli wrote:

Wait... what? Really? It's calculated? You mean from Eye & Avoid K's?



No. Not Eye and Avoid K.

If you think about it, realizing that "OOTP Contact" is an attempt to model batting average, it's obvious what makes it up. :)

It cannot be "Eye" because walks do not matter as far as batting average is concerned. But, yes, it does include AvK, and it includes Power, and it includes a hidden BABIP rating, all put together in some fashion to represent what the game thinks the player's batting average should be...relative to others, anyway, I suppose.

Batting average, after all, is built of strikeouts, homers, and the results of balls in play.

This is the beautiful results of DIPS theory, which says batting average itself is not a skill, but a composite made up of those three different skills. Even then, though, batting average will fluctuate widely at times due to sample size and many other aspects of the environment that are outside the hitter's control.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:32 pm 
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Spiccoli wrote:

How about pitchers then.

How would you explain how Tavio has pitched so well the last two seasons? What am I missing with him?


Well...pitchers are considerably more complex. :)

But a few thoughts...

(1) Tavio has always pitched to great control.
(2) He pitched well overall in Des Moines
(3) He got beat around a little in Long Beach's hitter's park.
(4) He moved to Twin Cities park in mid season and immediately got better.
(5) He went to Omaha and pitched to similar numbers except for a remarkably low BABIP. So either he got very lucky, or the Hawk defense helped him a ton (or a combination of both). Feel free to add in the fact that Omaha's park is death to base hits (.9 AVG).
(6) He's getting beat up a little in Brooklyn--though it's early. His .368 BABIP is a pretty big whiplash, though.

Bottom line, though Ciccolella has always been a good pitcher. He doesn't put many guys on base, and generally keeps the ball in the park. As long as his defense isn't horrible, he's going to keep his team in the game. The fact that he had a studly year is cool, but hardly a real head-scratcher to me. :)

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:35 pm 
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Another major point for Ciccolella is that at age 36 he's pretty much always been healthy, so I'm guess his ratings haven't had much in the line of "outside reasons" to degrade. Just natural aging. I'm making that up a little, though. My days of been steeped in development curves are considerably past me. I have no real idea how much the wear and tear of injuries make a difference overall these days.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:17 pm 
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I don't know a lot about the inner workings of the game and purposely skipped over 3/4 of this thread to keep it that way. To me, figuring out who will do well and who won't is the most fun part of the game. I tend to use the phrase, "context clues" when scouting a player. If he has an 7 contact rating, that's a sign he might be able to hit for a high average. But if he has hit .270 4 out of the last 5 years. Then he is probably about as low of a 7 that you can be or possibly have been misused. So I will look at things like split ratings/stats, ballpark factors, and even what division he plays in. The Johnson Atlantic is a very offensive division, particularly for a left handed power hitter, while the Frick Pacific is a pitchers haven.

So the goal is really to combine as much data as you can to create the big picture on who a player is. Then use all that info to create a cohesive team that will be better then the sum of it's parts. For example. let's say your infield is awesome. All 4 guys are rated 10-11 at their position, have great range, turn a lot of double plays, and don't make errors. Free agency comes around and you have a choice between a 13/6/7 fly ball pitcher and a 6/8/9 groundball pitcher. All things equal, I'd probably prefer the 13/6/7 pitcher. But the 6/8/9 pitcher would probably do better on your team as your infield will make him perform better then he really is. That is kinda what Tavio did last season. I believe he is a high 7 movement(essentially same as a low 8). Omaha had Munoz(11.4 ZR), Morales(12.5), Tremblett(7.5), Starks(4.4) and Rojas(6.2) in the field( 4 of those 5 on the right side). Their defense combined with Tavio's pitch to contact style created his career year.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:40 pm 
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The beauty of this is that when you go way down the rabbit hole, you finally come to an understanding that there really is no way to have any great certainty about how a player is going to perform. You go down the rabbit hole mostly because you're interested in the beauty of the game and want to do your best to latch it up "properly" with the game of real baseball.

You can gain some diagnostic tools to give yourself a sense of comfort after the fact, but with so many moving parts the very best you can really hope to get is some kind of visceral sense of where things lie. I have lots of things that don't work out well. Lots of others that do fine.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:46 pm 
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ae37jr wrote:
To me, figuring out who will do well and who won't is the most fun part of the game. I tend to use the phrase, "context clues" when scouting a player. If he has an 7 contact rating, that's a sign he might be able to hit for a high average. But if he has hit .270 4 out of the last 5 years. Then he is probably about as low of a 7 that you can be or possibly have been misused. So I will look at things like split ratings/stats, ballpark factors, and even what division he plays in. The Johnson Atlantic is a very offensive division, particularly for a left handed power hitter, while the Frick Pacific is a pitchers haven.


And, yes, this fits the base conversation to me (and the piece Ted was talking about regarding small rating spans) that at the end of the day, you can/should be playing the BBA game more in the stats-only mindset, using the ratings bars as kind of training wheels or general indicators.

Alberto Sanchez, for example, has never looked dominating from a rating perspective throughout his entire career, but he's always put up great numbers. Tim Oliver has that ugly looking control, but he's been able to pitch his way around it. Is that because he's got 2 brilliant pitches and a workable third? Dunno. All I can say for sure is that he's working out pretty good.

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Last edited by RonCo on Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:49 pm 
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RonCo wrote:
Spiccoli wrote:

Wait... what? Really? It's calculated? You mean from Eye & Avoid K's?



No. Not Eye and Avoid K.

If you think about it, realizing that "OOTP Contact" is an attempt to model batting average, it's obvious what makes it up. :)

It cannot be "Eye" because walks do not matter as far as batting average is concerned. But, yes, it does include AvK, and it includes Power, and it includes a hidden BABIP rating, all put together in some fashion to represent what the game thinks the player's batting average should be...relative to others, anyway, I suppose.

Batting average, after all, is built of strikeouts, homers, and the results of balls in play.

This is the beautiful results of DIPS theory, which says batting average itself is not a skill, but a composite made up of those three different skills. Even then, though, batting average will fluctuate widely at times due to sample size and many other aspects of the environment that are outside the hitter's control.


I played for a long time and Eye means a lot more to me than just judging balls and strikes and getting walks (which is definitely important). It's also means identifying the pitch type and speed and being able to swing at a good pitch to hit. At least that's what I thought it meant.

If Eye in OOTP is strictly for being able to walk a lot, then I have to rethink things... Which I guess is obvious.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:52 pm 
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ae37jr wrote:
I don't know a lot about the inner workings of the game and purposely skipped over 3/4 of this thread to keep it that way. To me, figuring out who will do well and who won't is the most fun part of the game. I tend to use the phrase, "context clues" when scouting a player. If he has an 7 contact rating, that's a sign he might be able to hit for a high average. But if he has hit .270 4 out of the last 5 years. Then he is probably about as low of a 7 that you can be or possibly have been misused. So I will look at things like split ratings/stats, ballpark factors, and even what division he plays in. The Johnson Atlantic is a very offensive division, particularly for a left handed power hitter, while the Frick Pacific is a pitchers haven.

So the goal is really to combine as much data as you can to create the big picture on who a player is. Then use all that info to create a cohesive team that will be better then the sum of it's parts. For example. let's say your infield is awesome. All 4 guys are rated 10-11 at their position, have great range, turn a lot of double plays, and don't make errors. Free agency comes around and you have a choice between a 13/6/7 fly ball pitcher and a 6/8/9 groundball pitcher. All things equal, I'd probably prefer the 13/6/7 pitcher. But the 6/8/9 pitcher would probably do better on your team as your infield will make him perform better then he really is. That is kinda what Tavio did last season. I believe he is a high 7 movement(essentially same as a low 8). Omaha had Munoz(11.4 ZR), Morales(12.5), Tremblett(7.5), Starks(4.4) and Rojas(6.2) in the field( 4 of those 5 on the right side). Their defense combined with Tavio's pitch to contact style created his career year.


Definitely makes sense with Tavio at Twin Cities.. with Wareham, Man and Limon. All extremely good defenders. Too bad he wanted $16 million for an extension. haha


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:19 pm 
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Spiccoli wrote:
If Eye in OOTP is strictly for being able to walk a lot, then I have to rethink things... Which I guess is obvious.


In the old days (v5ish) the ratings were different.

Here's the OOTP online manual regarding their view of what the ratings represent: http://manuals.ootpdevelopments.com/ind ... ng_ratings

Part of our problem with talking about ratings is that we bring our own baseball knowledge into the game. This becomes extremely interesting when discussing something like "stuff."

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:58 pm 
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RonCo wrote:
Spiccoli wrote:
If Eye in OOTP is strictly for being able to walk a lot, then I have to rethink things... Which I guess is obvious.


In the old days (v5ish) the ratings were different.

Here's the OOTP online manual regarding their view of what the ratings represent: http://manuals.ootpdevelopments.com/ind ... ng_ratings

Part of our problem with talking about ratings is that we bring our own baseball knowledge into the game. This becomes extremely interesting when discussing something like "stuff."



"Eye
Eye/Discipline is a measure of how well a player assesses incoming pitches and determines whether they will be balls or strikes. Eye/Discipline directly affects the number of times a player walks. However, Eye/Discipline has no direct effect on the likelihood that a player will make contact, or strike out."

This does very little to address the question of how the EYE rating figures into batting average. It all comes down to what they mean by "directly". The part about it affecting how many walks is clear. But, if it affects their assessment of incoming pitches as balls vs strikes, it almost certainly affects "contact" depending on how you define that (especially if you define it as correlating with batting average). They are mincing words with directly and indirectly. One way to look at it is the game's "contact" rating probably isn't what we think of as "contact". I think Ron talked about this in multiple spots.

And what makes this so confusing is that eye affects which pitches are swung at which affects the impact of avk vs the pitchers stuff on pitches that ARE swung at which affects the batters ability to see more pitches when then feeds back into his walk rate which then changes the way the game pitches at him which means his internal BAPIP/power/avk amalgamation into "contact" might make it more or less likely to get a hit thereby affecting his average, and so on and so forth until it all gets so murky and feedback loopy that you lose your mind trying to figure it out.

While I don't like the way the game approaches some ratings, contact in particular, the end result is that it DOES in fact mimic something very like real baseball, where the difference between a successful player and on that is not can be some barely minor thing in a timing mechanism, or 2/10s of mph of bat speed or in our case, 5 points of "contact" on a 1-250 scale, which still looks like a "7" to anyone looking from afar.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:03 pm 
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I'm not sure how much deeper to go here. :)

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:05 pm 
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Ted wrote:
"Eye/Discipline has no direct effect on the likelihood that a player will make contact, or strike out."

This does very little to address the question of how the EYE rating figures into batting average.


I'll just say that by definition, every rating has -indirect- influence on everything.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:07 pm 
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Seriously, you guys have provided some amazing input.

My last question...

Which, if any, of the intangibles affect performance? Intelligence? Work Ethic? Leadership?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:10 pm 
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No idea.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:39 pm 
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Spiccoli wrote:
Seriously, you guys have provided some amazing input.

My last question...

Which, if any, of the intangibles affect performance? Intelligence? Work Ethic? Leadership?

I don't worry too much about intangibles. The biggest thing to me is that a guy has decent Work Ethic (doesn't cause a problem by being lazy, as other players can get upset with the low WE guys) and isn't a troublemaker in the clubhouse (you'll know when you get one, players will let you know he's a twat)

Having a few 'Captain' and 'Leader' types is nice, but I don't need a team full of them.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:43 pm 
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It wouldn't surprise me if intelligence impacted performance, but I have literally zero idea if that's true, and if how, how it would manifest itself.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:49 pm 
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I just look for the higher numbers...

And guys named 'Hopkins'


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