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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:54 am 
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As the season winds down, it’s easy to see that it’s been a great year for rookies across the whole of the Frick League. Several young players have made major impacts in the pennant chases, and will certainly continue to do so in the post season. It makes for entertaining baseball, and also for some fun discussions around the water cooler as far as who should win the coveted award for first-year players.

It’s an interesting mix of guys.

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We’ll start with the only pitcher in the mix, California’s Ernie Kinney (8/7/6 Talents). The 21-year-old lefty was a late first round pick in 2030 and burst on the scene in mid-season with the Crusaders struggling. He’s made only 16 starts but gone 11-2 and posted a 2.48 ERA. He’s a crafty junkballer who throws all that junk hard, and a guy who all the pundits said would find the league catching up to him after one time around. To date, that hasn’t happened. The team is now tied with Long Beach going into the last four games of the season. We call that an impact player.


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Calgary’s John Karyabwite, at 20, is the next guy on the slate. The Venezuelan outfielder stepped into the Pioneer’s lineup to the tune of 608 plate appearances and a .339/.369/.486 slash line, good for 12 homers, 76 steals, and 4.1 WAR. Imagine what he would do if he could take a walk? Bottom line, though, Karyabwite’s presence has helped carry Calgary to the precipice of a wild card berth, and could help keep them there for a long time.


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Twin Cities 21-year-old catcher Gerald Gonzalez (6/6/7/7/5 Talents), from Maryville, Missouri, was a mainstay with one of the better feel-good stories of the year. He had an uneventful cup of coffee last year before stepping in and posting a 3.8 WAR effort based on 20 homers, 79 RBI, and a .279/.369/.486 slash line (502 PA). At 21 he’s a solid, if not spectacular defender, throwing out 35% of the runners who attempt to steal on him. Bottom line, Gonzalez is a solid pro, and the kind of quiet performer you find on a lot of post-season teams. He’s a major reason why TC is still in contention for a Wild Card going into the last week of the season.


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And, while we’re on catchers, we’ll talk about Yellow Springs’ 22-year-old Aaron Stone (8/8/9/8/5 Talents), who came from the 8th round of the 2030 draft to drop 25 bombs on Frick pitchers (to go with 79 RBI, and a .305/.366/.562 slash in 480 PA). Stone’s defensive acumen was a mixed bag, consisting of 12 passed balls, but catching 34% of runners attempting to steal. But that bat. Oh, my but it burns. Stone’s arrival is among the primary reasons the Nine are sitting at the top of the Frick League’s offensive registers, and still has an outside chance to take a second straight division title. That quake you just felt was the result of Frick League pitching staffs hearing that scouts say the slugger from Tulsa, Oklahoma isn’t done growing.


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Then there’s Louisville’s second baseman Gabriel Telemante. At 24, Telemante is the elder statesman of the rookie field, and he had 120 or so plate appearances in the league last year. Telemante makes his impact in the field, where he has Zimmer talent, and by hitting towering blasts of such prodigious nature that young women have been known to swoon when he swings. His 34 homers this year lead all rookies, and scouts continue to say that he’ll do better than his paltry .227 average (duplicated from last season). If he does that, Telemante will be a fixture at the All-Star game.


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Finally we come to Indy’s 23-year-old catcher, Bob Wagner (8/8/4/5/9 Talents), who arrived out of Leesburg, Florida last season for a moment, but who stuck for good this year. Indy had a nice run of it early in the year before fading. Wagner’s .302/.353/.425 line in 433 PA suggests the team’s catching role is in pretty fair hands for the foreseeable future, and the Grasshopper’s future path is looking rosy


Which of these guys is going to win? It’s a tough call. We like Kinney, Stone, and Karyabwite the best, but rational people can argue this, and the fact is that post-season play could make a difference at the end.

And, the truth is we could add several others into the mix, players like Louisville shortstop Jaime Ramirez, and Vancouver's Brett Compton. Omaha's Scotty Pendleton was solid, if not brilliant at times, and Seattle's Julio Alicea threw 160 gritty innings in front of a less-than-stellar team. Indy's Jose Reyes tossed 200+ for Indy.

Regardless, it bears repeating: 2032 was a good year for Frick League kids.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:18 pm 
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TWC's Gerald Gonzales proved that ratings don't directly correlate to performance. As many of you know when high rating players end up not playing well.

He made it impossible for me take him out of the lineup, he was hitting over .300 most of the year. Though I kept him out most of the time against lefty starters.

He's ratings aren't on par with some the excellent rookies coming out this year, but he was an unexpected surprise for the River Monsters and provided needed production from a position I thought was going to be hitting out of the 9 spot this year.

It'll be extremely interesting to see if he can repeat this years performance next season and beyond


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:30 pm 
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I'm voting for Jose Carlos Moreno because I'm a homer and he was only 17 when he came up. OK, not really but just wanted his name mentioned. haha

It's probably between Kinney and Karyabwhite. And whichever of those has the highest WAR will win.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:52 pm 
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17 Errors, .664 EFF, -5.3 ZR, 12 PB, 33.7% CS, 169 steals against. That bag isn't mixed. Though the bat is legit.

And 215 steals allowed for Wagner is just.....woof.

Gonzalez reminds me of Ronayne circa 2026. Hopefully he fares better in subsequent seasons.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:02 pm 
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Given Stone's CS rate, the total impact of opponent's running game has been pretty much a big fat zero... possibly even an advantage to YS9.

That's always Ted's big question, is it better to have a big gun of an arm behind the plate and not have anyone run, or is it better to have an arm that people will run on, but get caught enough that the weakness is an actual positive.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:03 pm 
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The errors he's committed are _probably_ mostly on SB throws. So that's a hidden negative. That said, Stone's defense isn't what we would like it to be. :)


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:51 pm 
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RonCo wrote:
Given Stone's CS rate, the total impact of opponent's running game has been pretty much a big fat zero... possibly even an advantage to YS9.

That's always Ted's big question, is it better to have a big gun of an arm behind the plate and not have anyone run, or is it better to have an arm that people will run on, but get caught enough that the weakness is an actual positive.

As often as people are running right now, is a 33.7% CS really a positive? I was thinking something more like Robertson as being more of that sweet spot. (as of 9/23) He's thrown out 77 and allowed 101 steals while Stone has thrown out 86 and allowed 169 steals against. (and even with an arm and position rating that you would think would deter runners, Scholes has still had runners test him 171 times; he's eliminated 70 of them)

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:04 am 
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FWIW, Ernie Kinney being promoted is when my season turned around. Haven't done the math, but I think was below .500 at the time. I may have the best record in the Brewster since midseason.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:10 am 
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Ted wrote:
FWIW, Ernie Kinney being promoted is when my season turned around. Haven't done the math, but I think was below .500 at the time. I may have the best record in the Brewster since midseason.

A pitcher being 9 games over .500 will do wonders for your record :)

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:51 am 
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udlb58 wrote:
RonCo wrote:
Given Stone's CS rate, the total impact of opponent's running game has been pretty much a big fat zero... possibly even an advantage to YS9.

That's always Ted's big question, is it better to have a big gun of an arm behind the plate and not have anyone run, or is it better to have an arm that people will run on, but get caught enough that the weakness is an actual positive.

As often as people are running right now, is a 33.7% CS really a positive? I was thinking something more like Robertson as being more of that sweet spot. (as of 9/23) He's thrown out 77 and allowed 101 steals while Stone has thrown out 86 and allowed 169 steals against. (and even with an arm and position rating that you would think would deter runners, Scholes has still had runners test him 171 times; he's eliminated 70 of them)


77/101 is a 43% CS rate. That isn't a sweet spot. It's fantastic. With the coarse math I often use, Roberson is worth about 16 runs, or 1.6 wins. Admittedly, my math is coarse.

The fact that the league is running a lot is not particularly relevant here. It's only relevant if the league as a whole is being successful more often...which it has not been.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:03 pm 
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BBA SB Success Rates:

2028 - 67.6%
2029 - 66.9%
2030 - 66.1%
2031 - 66.7%
2032 - 65.0%

So, 35% is league average...though you might have to bounce that down just a bit if double steals are in there. I'm not sure how Markus is calculating that. :)


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:23 pm 
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udlb58 wrote:
RonCo wrote:
Given Stone's CS rate, the total impact of opponent's running game has been pretty much a big fat zero... possibly even an advantage to YS9.

That's always Ted's big question, is it better to have a big gun of an arm behind the plate and not have anyone run, or is it better to have an arm that people will run on, but get caught enough that the weakness is an actual positive.

As often as people are running right now, is a 33.7% CS really a positive? I was thinking something more like Robertson as being more of that sweet spot. (as of 9/23) He's thrown out 77 and allowed 101 steals while Stone has thrown out 86 and allowed 169 steals against. (and even with an arm and position rating that you would think would deter runners, Scholes has still had runners test him 171 times; he's eliminated 70 of them)


man those raw numbers seem so low. Im not sure if we run more in the JL or if my pitchers just give up so many more runners it gives up more opportunities, but both of my guys have a lot more chances.

Gamboa- 114/328=34.8% (118 games)
Tanaka- 39/111= 35.1% (39 games)

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:20 pm 
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RonCo wrote:
udlb58 wrote:
RonCo wrote:
Given Stone's CS rate, the total impact of opponent's running game has been pretty much a big fat zero... possibly even an advantage to YS9.

That's always Ted's big question, is it better to have a big gun of an arm behind the plate and not have anyone run, or is it better to have an arm that people will run on, but get caught enough that the weakness is an actual positive.

As often as people are running right now, is a 33.7% CS really a positive? I was thinking something more like Robertson as being more of that sweet spot. (as of 9/23) He's thrown out 77 and allowed 101 steals while Stone has thrown out 86 and allowed 169 steals against. (and even with an arm and position rating that you would think would deter runners, Scholes has still had runners test him 171 times; he's eliminated 70 of them)


77/101 is a 43% CS rate. That isn't a sweet spot. It's fantastic. With the coarse math I often use, Roberson is worth about 16 runs, or 1.6 wins. Admittedly, my math is coarse.

The fact that the league is running a lot is not particularly relevant here. It's only relevant if the league as a whole is being successful more often...which it has not been.

Ah. Well, I was thinking a weak enough arm that a decent number of guys run, but a well above average CS% so you are getting more outs than other teams. After looking at Scholes, not many more were trying Robertson than him. A 9 arm is probably what would be ideal for that strategy. Though, with the way teams run, I really think just trying to thwart as many attempts as possible is the way to go.

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